Indo-Russia relations

Indo-Russia relations
Content

* Historical Ties

* Trade and Commerce

* Similarities

* Strategic ties and mutual cooperation

* Some Aberrations in otherwise warm relationship

* Geopolitical dynamics

* Way Ahead

* Conclusion



















Abstract:
For much longer time in our post independence history, Relations with Russia (Formerly USSR) has been the most important and vital for our economic, developmental and above all strategic issues. Though India was prominent advocate and leader of Non Alignment Movement, but changing scenario and our deteriorating relationship with our hostile neighbours and their collusion aggravated by U.S. help forced our foreign policy to rightly tilt towards USSR. This was manifested in 1971 treaty of Friendship and Cooperation.
Our relations with erstwhile USSR have been talked a lot and we have read and learnt a lot on that since school days.
Here my focus will be primarily on current situation of Indo-Russia relationship, some hiccups and way ahead in future with changed strategic equations.

Note: while reading if you feel anything to be added or any suggestion/feedback then please mail me @ satya.rafi@gmail.com



















Historical ties:
After the independence, indo Russia relationship has been an example close friendship between two countries and even strengthened by Friendship and cooperation treaty of 1971.
Before the era of globalization, Russia has been a pivot element in economic and defence related development of India. We signed friendship treaty in 70s and Russia supported us on all our strategic issue including Kashmir and always supports us for membership of Security Council.


Trade and Commerce:
We still import 80% of our weapons from Russia only. Bilateral trade has also gone up in the recent years.
India's major imports from Russia include machinery and equipments, ferrous metals, fertilizers while exports include pharmaceuticals, transport vehicles and instruments, agricultural produce and textiles.
Indian tea, coffee, tobacco, spices, nuts, canned vegetables and fruits are in high demand in Russia.
Indian and Russian governments have agreed to increase their turnover up to 20billion dollars by 2015.

Similarities and Differences:
Both the countries face terrorism from Kashmir and Chechnya. Both had border disputes with China but now Russia has resolved it completely. Both are now Democratic countries.
















Strategic ties and Mutual cooperation:
We were supported by Russia on all international forums for various issues like Permanent membership of UN, Kashmir etc. No Indian can forget that when possible U.S. action against us was looming around, it was Soviet help which enabled us to ward off that challenge.
In soviet era many industries in India were built with Russian cooperation in the fields of mining, oil and gas, ferrous and non ferrous metallurgy, power generation. High level of cooperation was largely promoted by inter governmental organizations and India received lot of loans to complete its projects.
Post Soviet era also, the cooperation is still on.
kundankulam nuclear power project is built with help of Russia and recently it became critical, this project is very important for energy needs.
Brahmos:
Whenever we talk of FDI, there is also a concern whether we are getting the technology or not? Recently when cabinet raised the cap on FDI in defence to 49% for case to case basis, as existing 26% allowed since 2002 isn't attracting enough FDI, then for all previous investments we observed, the only significant investment was from all weather friend Russia for Brahmos.
its a joint collaboration of India and Russia and its the best example of what FDI in defence can do though its more of an exception than rule as top govt of both the countries were highly involved in it.
Cryogenic technology which is essential for our space program was first given to us by Russia only, though now we have developed our own.
After the loss of INS Sindhurakshak, Since the strength of submarines have been severely impacted, India is planning to lease out another submarine from Russia.
Russia and India are also cooperating on 5th generation fighter aircrafts which is termed as the biggest defence cooperation.










Some aberrations from otherwise warm relationship:
The relationship which always have been termed as special by both the sides, have seen some tensioned moments also in recent past.
Due to Indias increasing closeness with US and at the same time Russia losing some defence contracts in India to US and Europe. Though, Russia admits that it needs to compete with other nations for defence equipments supplies to India, Russian ambassador has pointed out that these deals were manipulated.
Though, Foreign policy must be governed on the basis of national interest only. We must opt for the best defence equipment available to us. But defence contracts also have a strategic dimension and are also a way to strengthen the relationship with the countries which are strategically important to us.
To resolve this issue, the best possible way would be to make the bidding and awarding the contract more transparent, it will remove most of the suspicions.























Geo Political Dynamics:
In this section we will analyze how the some of the major bilateral relations are affecting Indo-Russia Relations.
1 China:
The closeness between China and Russia is increasing and China has resolved all its border disputes with Russia and moving ahead together in various issues including both seem to be speaking in one voice against US hegemony.
But, India still has strained relationship with China and recent row over unsettled border has again heated up the atmosphere.
India has variety of reasons to be wary, Russia and China have recently conducted biggest naval exercise and with recent visit of Chinese premier, they both have said to be entered in a special relationship.
But Russia is also wary of increasing Chinese influence in Asia so in future it must cooperate with India to contain any hegemony in its own neighbourhood.

2 Pakistan:
In the last week of August 2013, Russia and Pakistan held their first ever strategic dialogues which included a wide range of issues from Economy, politics, international issues, defence and security.
Russia backed Pakistan for observer status in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and is also supporting it for full membership and in turn Pakistan is supporting the Russian bid for membership at Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC).
India is watching very carefully this major development which followed the decades long frosty relationship.
Putin was to visit Pakistan last year but his program got cancelled at last moment, analysts say that Indias pressure worked on him.
But, we should not be wary of this relationship much because:

1. If India has moved ahead with its relationship with U.S. and Japan (with whom Russia doesnt feel comfortable) then Russia has every right to do so with Pakistan.

2. India-Russia-Pakistan is not a zero sum game for Russia and they will definitely not improve ties with Pakistan at the cost of India.

3. Russia-Pak relationship is for security and stake in Afghanistan after NATO forces withdrawal in 2014.





3 Japan:
Russia doesnt have good relations with Japan over Kuril Islands issue. And India has started developing good relations with Japan these days as both are vary of Chinese aggression.

4 US:
After the collapse of USSR and subsequent unipolar world, India tried to improve ties with US. US also responded well keeping in mind the huge market for their companies and starting from late nineties, our relations with US improved with brief period of sanctions after 1998 nuclear test.
Shifting attention towards Asia pacific by US is seen as trying to contain China and helping India in the process which is nearest rival.
Russia is wary of our relations with US and Japan but it should understand that these relations are important for us in wake of our own neighbourhood.


Way Ahead:
Even if we leave aside the past ties, India and Russia need each other very much in the todays scenario for below reasons:
Indias Benefit:
Still our 70% of military hardware is supplied by Russia so for its maintenance, repair, service we depend on them.
Indian Ocean Region is going to be the most important region strategically in future and we aspire to be Blue water navy for which submarines are essential and Russia is the only country which provides submarines to us. And Russia has been a reliable supplier of weapons and it has helped even in the time of crisis.
Russia being large producer of oil and natural gas and being large consumer India can get benefit from it and it can expand our energy sources.
Russias clout and its friendship can be used in dealing with China.
Russias Benefit:
India Being one of the biggest consumers of Oil & Gas, Russia can earn a lot. Russia depends a lot on the defence market of India. And with the decline of US, if Russia is trying to reassert itself, it has to take India along in the multi polar world.
Russian Companies can also get benefits from heavy infrastructure programs in India.




Conclusion:
Though weakened after soviet disintegration, Russia is far from spent force and slowly reasserting itself on international issues and challenging US hegemony which is declining.
Though wary of some of the relations of India, Russia took note of India not supporting US unilateral action against Syria at G20 which puts India in the league with Russia and few others not supporting war on Syria.
So Russia and India being the close friends for so long, will definitely understand each others concerns and their relations to other countries can never be at the cost of their own strong bonding.

Question Bank

5. marks
Write short note on recent Indo-Russian cooperation
10-15 marks
Despite close ties in defence equipment procurement, How do you think about Indo-Russian Strategic ties in current world.
20-25 marks
Do you think India has been able to strike a balance in its foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia and US?

Bibliography

1. ..wikipedia

2. .. http://www.globalpolitician.com/print.asp?id=4211

3. http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/1783591/column-how-strong-are-the-ties-that-bind-russia-and-india

4. http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/1783591/column-how-strong-are-the-ties-that-bind-russia-and-india

by Satyendra Singh

Introduction

24 Dec 1999, IC 814 an Indian Airlines aircraft was hijacked from Kathmandu, after touching down in Amritsar, Lahore and Dubai it finally landed in Kandahar. Taliban acted as negotiators between India and the Pakistan based terrorists, and secured the release of 3 dreaded Terrorists in exchange for safety of the passengers. Later on, one of the terrorist played a role in 2001 Indian parliament attack, another organised murder of Daniel Pearl and had a role in 9/11 attacks. Another is active in recruiting and training of young Muslims to the guerrilla war in Indian Kashmir with full cooperation with the Pakistani ISI. This incident shows the level of cooperation and closeness between ISI and the terrorist organizations based in Pak and also between ISI and Taliban. It also shows the importance to India of peace, stability in Afghanistan which is ruled by a democratic government that is not anti-India and which is Afghan led.

Not only from the security point of view but the relation between our countries also has an economic dimension. Afghanistan can act as an energy and transport corridor, market for our goods and capital investors. As US is drawing down its forces, there is growing concern in the world that it might turn out to be a battle ground among competing spheres of influence. India is particularly worried as US is taking a conciliatory position with Taliban and it knows that to continue its developmental work there will be impossible without the presence of foreign troops.

Historical ties

India historically had extensive connections with Afghanistan, at one time it was a part of Mauryan Empire and was later under Indo-Greek kingdom. So till Islams arrival in Afghanistan Hinduism, Buddhism and Zoroastrianism flourished. Turkic invaders who are from Afghanistan namely Ghaznavids,Ghurids,Khiljis,Suris, andDurranis invaded India from 10th to 18th cen. British India fought 3 wars(1st-1839-42, 2nd-1878-80, 3rd-1919) with it, which are part of the Great Game between British and Russia. At the time of Partition INC supported efforts of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khans in lobbying for greater Pashtun freedom in the NWFP. This issue of border demarcation between Pakistan and Afghanistan is still not resolved. Pak adopted the Durand line as its northern boundary with Afghanistan in 1947, this was initially arrived at by an agreement in 1893 between British and the Amir. But there has never been aformalagreement orratification betweenIslamabad and Kabul. Pashtun and Baloch people live on either side of the boundary having cultural and Kin- Ship ties, so some groups among them also resist the recognition of the line. This is one of the major reasons for animosity between them. Another reason for prejudice between them is Pakistans strategy of using Afghanistan for Strategic depth against India. After collapse of Soviet backed regime in 1992, ISI created and directed Taliban to capture power and from then onwards it was acting as a wholly owned subsidiary of Pakistans military. Strategic Depth refers to the opportunity for Pakistans leadership to shift to Afghanistan in an event of Indian attack to absorb the initial thrust and quickly plan a counter attack from there.
Afghanistan is the newest member in SAARC. After PoK got divided, No direct border but psychologically we both think we are neighbors and friends (because Pak is enemy to both and cultural ties from thousands of years). Its geography is both a boon and bane (its strategic position led many countries to fight for it leading to wars) for it. Its a gate way to central Asia and beyond, and to west Asia. It has immense potential to develop as a hub of trade, energy and transport corridors-this would help the long-term sustainability of development efforts in the region. India-Afghan relations were fairly well managed till Taliban captured power; in fact India was the only country in the region which recognized the soviet-Afghan regime. After setting up of democratic government the relations started flourishing again culminating in Strategic partnership agreement in 2011, it is Indias 1st such agreement with a South Asian nation. India also worked for its inclusion in SAARC. In a 2010 poll, Afghanspreferred India's leadership over that of theU.S.andChina, with 50% expressing approval, the most positive rating of India for any other surveyedAsia-Pacificcountry.



India in Afghanistan


* A rising India can be market for its goods and can become a partner in our growth, and India can also be a source of Investment and capacity building expertise.

* India as a bilateral donor gave $2b in aid.

* India undertaking projects virtually in almost all sectors-hydroelectricity, power transmission lines, roads, agriculture and industry, telecommunications, information and broadcasting, education, health, these fields have been identified by Afghan govt as priority areas for reconstruction and development.

* Supported maternal and child health hospitals like IG hospital in Kabul, connected through telemedical link with two superspeciality medical centres in India.

* Rebuilt and helped run girls schools, built a vital road in south-western Afghanistan, from Zaranj to Delaram, opening up a trade route towards the west to supplement the existing route through Pak.

* 24 hours electricity possible in Kabul because of Indian engineers developing transmission cables at a height of 3000mts across mountains.

* Education and training programmes in Afghanistan are the largest such programmes India offers for any other country and India offer the largest skill and capacity development programme than any other country.

* Students and civil servants come to India for education and training this helps stabilize the country and region. 675 scholarships a year. Tube wells, sanitation projects and medical missions, solar energy projects, gave at least 3 Airbus planes to Afghanistan national airlines. Constructing Salma Dam across HariRud river in Herat and finishing Afghanistan parliament building.

* SAIL led consortium won three of the four resource blocks at Hajigak there, considered the largest iron ore deposit in Asia. This is the largest FDI from India in mining ever. SAIL also plans to develop a steel plant. As of 2012 India invested $10.8b in Afghanistan.

* Indias presence increased with the signing of Indo-Afghan strategic partnership in 2011. It goes beyond security dimension, also dwells on trade and economic cooperation, capacity development and education, social cultural & civil society and people to people relations. Two separate MoUs have been signed on mining and hydrocarbon exploration.


These developmental works have also come at cost for India. There were 3 attacks on Indian embassies-latest in Jalalabad, another attack on a residence of Indian development workers and many kidnappings and killing of road building crews and construction personnel.

Why only developmental work by India?

We undertake these developmental works because stability and pluralism in Afghanistan and its integration into the regional ecosystem are in Indias own self-interested-stabilization in Afghanistan will have percussions in the whole region which will pose a grave threat to our security and our vision to become a great power. Other Indian interests-India is planning two hydrocarbon pipelines TAPI and another from Kazakhstan involving 6 countries, which in future could be extended to Russia too. For an energy starved nation like us, we need to diversify our sources and also transport though pipelines are cheaper. Also it is a gateway to markets of central Asia and beyond, so a transport corridor can run through it, this will help us diversify our markets as new land routes develop.
But any Indian involvement in military matters will raise tensions with Pak so India has self-restrained itself to development works while leaving other countries to handle security. India was also not invited to US led International security assistance force (ISAF) due to reservations of Pak.

Present condition

* Russia extended its deal with Tajikistan to have a military base (its largest in foreign soil) up to 30 years. Similar deal made with Kyrgyzstan-these are key to Russia's strategy after NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. It will also have facilities there to service its military equipment bought by NATO and given to ANSF. Sceptics are saying that Russia is trying to enter Afghanistan again to fill the power vacuum.

* Afghanistan national security forces-ANSF asks India for military aid in light of its skirmishes with Pak army in June to September 2012, it is a test for the Indo-Afghan Strategic partnership agreement between them(1st such accord of Afghan with any other country), India's dilemma is that this move may upset Pak. As it is now accusing India that it is using Afghanistan as a base for war against it.

* Russia chairs SCO (Shanghai cooperation Org) presently, So India hopes to become full member from its present observer status, and China may also welcome India as both have threat from Islamic terror. India hopes SCO can play huge role in Afghan stability, some of its members have ethnic links that country; India wants to be a part of SCO's Regional Anti-terrorism structure (RATS)-which is a useful forum for tackling Islamic militancy.

* India maintains an airbase in Tajikistan. Though neither acknowledges its presence. Tajikistan uses it to counter Taliban inspired groups in its south. This is a strategic asset for India which is worried about future of Afghanistan.

* SAIL led consortium won three of the four resource blocks at Hajigak in Afgh, considered the largest iron ore deposit in Asia-largest FDI from India in mining ever.

* More than 60 foreign soldiers were killed in 2012 in insider attacks. These are also called green on blue attacks; they have bred mistrust and threatened to derail the training process of ANSF, bad news for India.

* Pak, China and Russia met in Beijing to discuss about aftermath of NATO withdrawal, they agreed that SCO should play greater role there, earlier similar talks happened between India, China and Russia in Moscow.

* India-china counter terrorism talks took place in Beijing, previously China did not give much importance to these meeting because of its close relationship with Pak but due to the situation in Afghanistan which may destabilise the region, and threat to its assets there and reports of links of groups in Xinjiang with Pak terrorists, china taking the issue seriously.

* India, Iran and Afghanistan have announced trilateral partnership to develop Chabahar(going to be vital after NATO withdrawal) port in Iran, it will give alternate sea route for the landlocked country, earlier relied on Pak, it is seen as Indias counter to china's stake in pak's Gwadar port-76km from Chabhar, and both are near to strategically important strait of Homruz.

* India will also build Chabahar-Faraj-Bam railway line, Bam is on the border of Afghanistan, from there a 200km road already built by India called Zaranj-Delram road which links with Afghanistan's Garland Highway linking its all major cities


Reconciliation with Taliban


* Afghanistan and Pak met in London, they asked Taliban to open office in Doha and decided to work for a peace deal in 6months, and Pak will release Talibani prisoners from jail as a good will gesture.

* India is cautionary as Taliban and afghan talks take place. Withdrawal of western forces and easing of sanctions could help al-Qaida to which the Taliban has still links with will emerge, although Afghanistan has improved on economic and social parameters it still has terrorist threat, as terrorist infrastructure is still present.

* Taliban also announced that it is interested in negotiations with Afghan government's high peace council; this coincided with its office being opened in Doha and nationwide takeover of security duties by ANSF from NATO.

* Kabul backed out of talks with US and Taliban in Doha after it became clear that Taliban's office in Qatar is a quasi-embassy(it had Taliban flag and named it Islamic emirate of Afghanistan), Kara is angry that US is not disapproving the symbolic political legitimacy granted to Taliban by Qatar. Later the flag was removed with US intervention but fears still in Afghanistan as US might compromise its core interests too.
Initially India was worried at US's interest in reconciliation with Taliban. But it now reconciled to the idea of dialogue with only those Taliban groups who are prepared to renounce violence, but fears are there that once foreign forces are withdrawn, Taliban under Pakistan tutelage might show their true colors and challenge the regime they have compromised with. So to have a long term solution, India favors the option of strengthening ANSF (Afghan national security forces) to fight and overcome terrorism, which it is doing through the Strategic partnership treaty. India believes that any process of reconciliation should be Afghan led and it should be inclusive and transparent. Afghanistan should not be forced to cross the 'red lines' laid down by its government in its London and Kabul communiqus by outside forces.



Future

India is concerned with US's drawdown as its developmental efforts would not be possible without foreign troops present, but all US forces will not be withdrawn, considerable numbers will be retained as the primary objective of its invading is to prevent it from becoming a safe haven for terrorists which it will again become if they withdraw before strengthening Afghan Govt. But after 2014 they will assume a less proactive role and engage in giving support to Afghanistan forces-accordingly bases are being fortified to house US forces after 2014(modest estimate is US will retain 20,000 troops. Afghanistan wants US promise to support it in case of Pak posing threat after its withdrawal. As the withdrawal date nears competing countries are intensifying their efforts to get to have more say, India must engage with such forces like SCO to protect our own interests and not to turn it into a battle ground.
Taliban have intensified their offensives in North, South and Central Afghanistan, ANSF is in bad need of training and equipment. Hence International community should make long term commitments for peace in Afghanistan until it can fend for itself. Afghans have shown remarkable strength though tiring times in the past and they always resurged from ashes, now also youth are dreaming of a New Afghanistan, the least we can do is support them.





Question Bank


1. What are the commercial Interests of India in Afghanistan?

2. Indias efforts at stabilizing Afghanistan?

3. Comments on Reconciliation process with Taliban and Indias concerns about it.



Skeletal structure for answer writing


1. Can mention the SAIL deal and how India is involved in many projects there. And TAPI and other pipeline.

2. Mention under 2 broad points: how stabilizing security(SCO and ANSF) and stabilizing the democratic institutions, scholarships, development, aid etc

3. Indias fears of return of Taliban and its close proximity with ISI, Jalalabad consulate attack-reports say Haqqani network is responsible which has close relations with ISI. Any reconciliation should be Afghan led and should not compromise the basic constitutional principles of the nation.

Bibliography


* Books: PaxIndica by Shashi Tharoor. Chapter of Tough Neighbourhood.


* Internet: Wikipedia, NY Times.


* Newspaper: The Hindu

By:
M V Teja Chilamakuri

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