Introduction

24 Dec 1999, IC 814 an Indian Airlines aircraft was hijacked from Kathmandu, after touching down in Amritsar, Lahore and Dubai it finally landed in Kandahar. Taliban acted as negotiators between India and the Pakistan based terrorists, and secured the release of 3 dreaded Terrorists in exchange for safety of the passengers. Later on, one of the terrorist played a role in 2001 Indian parliament attack, another organised murder of Daniel Pearl and had a role in 9/11 attacks. Another is active in recruiting and training of young Muslims to the guerrilla war in Indian Kashmir with full cooperation with the Pakistani ISI. This incident shows the level of cooperation and closeness between ISI and the terrorist organizations based in Pak and also between ISI and Taliban. It also shows the importance to India of peace, stability in Afghanistan which is ruled by a democratic government that is not anti-India and which is Afghan led.

Not only from the security point of view but the relation between our countries also has an economic dimension. Afghanistan can act as an energy and transport corridor, market for our goods and capital investors. As US is drawing down its forces, there is growing concern in the world that it might turn out to be a battle ground among competing spheres of influence. India is particularly worried as US is taking a conciliatory position with Taliban and it knows that to continue its developmental work there will be impossible without the presence of foreign troops.

Historical ties

India historically had extensive connections with Afghanistan, at one time it was a part of Mauryan Empire and was later under Indo-Greek kingdom. So till Islams arrival in Afghanistan Hinduism, Buddhism and Zoroastrianism flourished. Turkic invaders who are from Afghanistan namely Ghaznavids,Ghurids,Khiljis,Suris, andDurranis invaded India from 10th to 18th cen. British India fought 3 wars(1st-1839-42, 2nd-1878-80, 3rd-1919) with it, which are part of the Great Game between British and Russia. At the time of Partition INC supported efforts of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khans in lobbying for greater Pashtun freedom in the NWFP. This issue of border demarcation between Pakistan and Afghanistan is still not resolved. Pak adopted the Durand line as its northern boundary with Afghanistan in 1947, this was initially arrived at by an agreement in 1893 between British and the Amir. But there has never been aformalagreement orratification betweenIslamabad and Kabul. Pashtun and Baloch people live on either side of the boundary having cultural and Kin- Ship ties, so some groups among them also resist the recognition of the line. This is one of the major reasons for animosity between them. Another reason for prejudice between them is Pakistans strategy of using Afghanistan for Strategic depth against India. After collapse of Soviet backed regime in 1992, ISI created and directed Taliban to capture power and from then onwards it was acting as a wholly owned subsidiary of Pakistans military. Strategic Depth refers to the opportunity for Pakistans leadership to shift to Afghanistan in an event of Indian attack to absorb the initial thrust and quickly plan a counter attack from there.
Afghanistan is the newest member in SAARC. After PoK got divided, No direct border but psychologically we both think we are neighbors and friends (because Pak is enemy to both and cultural ties from thousands of years). Its geography is both a boon and bane (its strategic position led many countries to fight for it leading to wars) for it. Its a gate way to central Asia and beyond, and to west Asia. It has immense potential to develop as a hub of trade, energy and transport corridors-this would help the long-term sustainability of development efforts in the region. India-Afghan relations were fairly well managed till Taliban captured power; in fact India was the only country in the region which recognized the soviet-Afghan regime. After setting up of democratic government the relations started flourishing again culminating in Strategic partnership agreement in 2011, it is Indias 1st such agreement with a South Asian nation. India also worked for its inclusion in SAARC. In a 2010 poll, Afghanspreferred India's leadership over that of theU.S.andChina, with 50% expressing approval, the most positive rating of India for any other surveyedAsia-Pacificcountry.



India in Afghanistan


* A rising India can be market for its goods and can become a partner in our growth, and India can also be a source of Investment and capacity building expertise.

* India as a bilateral donor gave $2b in aid.

* India undertaking projects virtually in almost all sectors-hydroelectricity, power transmission lines, roads, agriculture and industry, telecommunications, information and broadcasting, education, health, these fields have been identified by Afghan govt as priority areas for reconstruction and development.

* Supported maternal and child health hospitals like IG hospital in Kabul, connected through telemedical link with two superspeciality medical centres in India.

* Rebuilt and helped run girls schools, built a vital road in south-western Afghanistan, from Zaranj to Delaram, opening up a trade route towards the west to supplement the existing route through Pak.

* 24 hours electricity possible in Kabul because of Indian engineers developing transmission cables at a height of 3000mts across mountains.

* Education and training programmes in Afghanistan are the largest such programmes India offers for any other country and India offer the largest skill and capacity development programme than any other country.

* Students and civil servants come to India for education and training this helps stabilize the country and region. 675 scholarships a year. Tube wells, sanitation projects and medical missions, solar energy projects, gave at least 3 Airbus planes to Afghanistan national airlines. Constructing Salma Dam across HariRud river in Herat and finishing Afghanistan parliament building.

* SAIL led consortium won three of the four resource blocks at Hajigak there, considered the largest iron ore deposit in Asia. This is the largest FDI from India in mining ever. SAIL also plans to develop a steel plant. As of 2012 India invested $10.8b in Afghanistan.

* Indias presence increased with the signing of Indo-Afghan strategic partnership in 2011. It goes beyond security dimension, also dwells on trade and economic cooperation, capacity development and education, social cultural & civil society and people to people relations. Two separate MoUs have been signed on mining and hydrocarbon exploration.


These developmental works have also come at cost for India. There were 3 attacks on Indian embassies-latest in Jalalabad, another attack on a residence of Indian development workers and many kidnappings and killing of road building crews and construction personnel.

Why only developmental work by India?

We undertake these developmental works because stability and pluralism in Afghanistan and its integration into the regional ecosystem are in Indias own self-interested-stabilization in Afghanistan will have percussions in the whole region which will pose a grave threat to our security and our vision to become a great power. Other Indian interests-India is planning two hydrocarbon pipelines TAPI and another from Kazakhstan involving 6 countries, which in future could be extended to Russia too. For an energy starved nation like us, we need to diversify our sources and also transport though pipelines are cheaper. Also it is a gateway to markets of central Asia and beyond, so a transport corridor can run through it, this will help us diversify our markets as new land routes develop.
But any Indian involvement in military matters will raise tensions with Pak so India has self-restrained itself to development works while leaving other countries to handle security. India was also not invited to US led International security assistance force (ISAF) due to reservations of Pak.

Present condition

* Russia extended its deal with Tajikistan to have a military base (its largest in foreign soil) up to 30 years. Similar deal made with Kyrgyzstan-these are key to Russia's strategy after NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. It will also have facilities there to service its military equipment bought by NATO and given to ANSF. Sceptics are saying that Russia is trying to enter Afghanistan again to fill the power vacuum.

* Afghanistan national security forces-ANSF asks India for military aid in light of its skirmishes with Pak army in June to September 2012, it is a test for the Indo-Afghan Strategic partnership agreement between them(1st such accord of Afghan with any other country), India's dilemma is that this move may upset Pak. As it is now accusing India that it is using Afghanistan as a base for war against it.

* Russia chairs SCO (Shanghai cooperation Org) presently, So India hopes to become full member from its present observer status, and China may also welcome India as both have threat from Islamic terror. India hopes SCO can play huge role in Afghan stability, some of its members have ethnic links that country; India wants to be a part of SCO's Regional Anti-terrorism structure (RATS)-which is a useful forum for tackling Islamic militancy.

* India maintains an airbase in Tajikistan. Though neither acknowledges its presence. Tajikistan uses it to counter Taliban inspired groups in its south. This is a strategic asset for India which is worried about future of Afghanistan.

* SAIL led consortium won three of the four resource blocks at Hajigak in Afgh, considered the largest iron ore deposit in Asia-largest FDI from India in mining ever.

* More than 60 foreign soldiers were killed in 2012 in insider attacks. These are also called green on blue attacks; they have bred mistrust and threatened to derail the training process of ANSF, bad news for India.

* Pak, China and Russia met in Beijing to discuss about aftermath of NATO withdrawal, they agreed that SCO should play greater role there, earlier similar talks happened between India, China and Russia in Moscow.

* India-china counter terrorism talks took place in Beijing, previously China did not give much importance to these meeting because of its close relationship with Pak but due to the situation in Afghanistan which may destabilise the region, and threat to its assets there and reports of links of groups in Xinjiang with Pak terrorists, china taking the issue seriously.

* India, Iran and Afghanistan have announced trilateral partnership to develop Chabahar(going to be vital after NATO withdrawal) port in Iran, it will give alternate sea route for the landlocked country, earlier relied on Pak, it is seen as Indias counter to china's stake in pak's Gwadar port-76km from Chabhar, and both are near to strategically important strait of Homruz.

* India will also build Chabahar-Faraj-Bam railway line, Bam is on the border of Afghanistan, from there a 200km road already built by India called Zaranj-Delram road which links with Afghanistan's Garland Highway linking its all major cities


Reconciliation with Taliban


* Afghanistan and Pak met in London, they asked Taliban to open office in Doha and decided to work for a peace deal in 6months, and Pak will release Talibani prisoners from jail as a good will gesture.

* India is cautionary as Taliban and afghan talks take place. Withdrawal of western forces and easing of sanctions could help al-Qaida to which the Taliban has still links with will emerge, although Afghanistan has improved on economic and social parameters it still has terrorist threat, as terrorist infrastructure is still present.

* Taliban also announced that it is interested in negotiations with Afghan government's high peace council; this coincided with its office being opened in Doha and nationwide takeover of security duties by ANSF from NATO.

* Kabul backed out of talks with US and Taliban in Doha after it became clear that Taliban's office in Qatar is a quasi-embassy(it had Taliban flag and named it Islamic emirate of Afghanistan), Kara is angry that US is not disapproving the symbolic political legitimacy granted to Taliban by Qatar. Later the flag was removed with US intervention but fears still in Afghanistan as US might compromise its core interests too.
Initially India was worried at US's interest in reconciliation with Taliban. But it now reconciled to the idea of dialogue with only those Taliban groups who are prepared to renounce violence, but fears are there that once foreign forces are withdrawn, Taliban under Pakistan tutelage might show their true colors and challenge the regime they have compromised with. So to have a long term solution, India favors the option of strengthening ANSF (Afghan national security forces) to fight and overcome terrorism, which it is doing through the Strategic partnership treaty. India believes that any process of reconciliation should be Afghan led and it should be inclusive and transparent. Afghanistan should not be forced to cross the 'red lines' laid down by its government in its London and Kabul communiqus by outside forces.



Future

India is concerned with US's drawdown as its developmental efforts would not be possible without foreign troops present, but all US forces will not be withdrawn, considerable numbers will be retained as the primary objective of its invading is to prevent it from becoming a safe haven for terrorists which it will again become if they withdraw before strengthening Afghan Govt. But after 2014 they will assume a less proactive role and engage in giving support to Afghanistan forces-accordingly bases are being fortified to house US forces after 2014(modest estimate is US will retain 20,000 troops. Afghanistan wants US promise to support it in case of Pak posing threat after its withdrawal. As the withdrawal date nears competing countries are intensifying their efforts to get to have more say, India must engage with such forces like SCO to protect our own interests and not to turn it into a battle ground.
Taliban have intensified their offensives in North, South and Central Afghanistan, ANSF is in bad need of training and equipment. Hence International community should make long term commitments for peace in Afghanistan until it can fend for itself. Afghans have shown remarkable strength though tiring times in the past and they always resurged from ashes, now also youth are dreaming of a New Afghanistan, the least we can do is support them.





Question Bank


1. What are the commercial Interests of India in Afghanistan?

2. Indias efforts at stabilizing Afghanistan?

3. Comments on Reconciliation process with Taliban and Indias concerns about it.



Skeletal structure for answer writing


1. Can mention the SAIL deal and how India is involved in many projects there. And TAPI and other pipeline.

2. Mention under 2 broad points: how stabilizing security(SCO and ANSF) and stabilizing the democratic institutions, scholarships, development, aid etc

3. Indias fears of return of Taliban and its close proximity with ISI, Jalalabad consulate attack-reports say Haqqani network is responsible which has close relations with ISI. Any reconciliation should be Afghan led and should not compromise the basic constitutional principles of the nation.

Bibliography


* Books: PaxIndica by Shashi Tharoor. Chapter of Tough Neighbourhood.


* Internet: Wikipedia, NY Times.


* Newspaper: The Hindu

By:
M V Teja Chilamakuri

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