Indo-Russia relations

Indo-Russia relations
Content

* Historical Ties

* Trade and Commerce

* Similarities

* Strategic ties and mutual cooperation

* Some Aberrations in otherwise warm relationship

* Geopolitical dynamics

* Way Ahead

* Conclusion



















Abstract:
For much longer time in our post independence history, Relations with Russia (Formerly USSR) has been the most important and vital for our economic, developmental and above all strategic issues. Though India was prominent advocate and leader of Non Alignment Movement, but changing scenario and our deteriorating relationship with our hostile neighbours and their collusion aggravated by U.S. help forced our foreign policy to rightly tilt towards USSR. This was manifested in 1971 treaty of Friendship and Cooperation.
Our relations with erstwhile USSR have been talked a lot and we have read and learnt a lot on that since school days.
Here my focus will be primarily on current situation of Indo-Russia relationship, some hiccups and way ahead in future with changed strategic equations.

Note: while reading if you feel anything to be added or any suggestion/feedback then please mail me @ satya.rafi@gmail.com



















Historical ties:
After the independence, indo Russia relationship has been an example close friendship between two countries and even strengthened by Friendship and cooperation treaty of 1971.
Before the era of globalization, Russia has been a pivot element in economic and defence related development of India. We signed friendship treaty in 70s and Russia supported us on all our strategic issue including Kashmir and always supports us for membership of Security Council.


Trade and Commerce:
We still import 80% of our weapons from Russia only. Bilateral trade has also gone up in the recent years.
India's major imports from Russia include machinery and equipments, ferrous metals, fertilizers while exports include pharmaceuticals, transport vehicles and instruments, agricultural produce and textiles.
Indian tea, coffee, tobacco, spices, nuts, canned vegetables and fruits are in high demand in Russia.
Indian and Russian governments have agreed to increase their turnover up to 20billion dollars by 2015.

Similarities and Differences:
Both the countries face terrorism from Kashmir and Chechnya. Both had border disputes with China but now Russia has resolved it completely. Both are now Democratic countries.
















Strategic ties and Mutual cooperation:
We were supported by Russia on all international forums for various issues like Permanent membership of UN, Kashmir etc. No Indian can forget that when possible U.S. action against us was looming around, it was Soviet help which enabled us to ward off that challenge.
In soviet era many industries in India were built with Russian cooperation in the fields of mining, oil and gas, ferrous and non ferrous metallurgy, power generation. High level of cooperation was largely promoted by inter governmental organizations and India received lot of loans to complete its projects.
Post Soviet era also, the cooperation is still on.
kundankulam nuclear power project is built with help of Russia and recently it became critical, this project is very important for energy needs.
Brahmos:
Whenever we talk of FDI, there is also a concern whether we are getting the technology or not? Recently when cabinet raised the cap on FDI in defence to 49% for case to case basis, as existing 26% allowed since 2002 isn't attracting enough FDI, then for all previous investments we observed, the only significant investment was from all weather friend Russia for Brahmos.
its a joint collaboration of India and Russia and its the best example of what FDI in defence can do though its more of an exception than rule as top govt of both the countries were highly involved in it.
Cryogenic technology which is essential for our space program was first given to us by Russia only, though now we have developed our own.
After the loss of INS Sindhurakshak, Since the strength of submarines have been severely impacted, India is planning to lease out another submarine from Russia.
Russia and India are also cooperating on 5th generation fighter aircrafts which is termed as the biggest defence cooperation.










Some aberrations from otherwise warm relationship:
The relationship which always have been termed as special by both the sides, have seen some tensioned moments also in recent past.
Due to Indias increasing closeness with US and at the same time Russia losing some defence contracts in India to US and Europe. Though, Russia admits that it needs to compete with other nations for defence equipments supplies to India, Russian ambassador has pointed out that these deals were manipulated.
Though, Foreign policy must be governed on the basis of national interest only. We must opt for the best defence equipment available to us. But defence contracts also have a strategic dimension and are also a way to strengthen the relationship with the countries which are strategically important to us.
To resolve this issue, the best possible way would be to make the bidding and awarding the contract more transparent, it will remove most of the suspicions.























Geo Political Dynamics:
In this section we will analyze how the some of the major bilateral relations are affecting Indo-Russia Relations.
1 China:
The closeness between China and Russia is increasing and China has resolved all its border disputes with Russia and moving ahead together in various issues including both seem to be speaking in one voice against US hegemony.
But, India still has strained relationship with China and recent row over unsettled border has again heated up the atmosphere.
India has variety of reasons to be wary, Russia and China have recently conducted biggest naval exercise and with recent visit of Chinese premier, they both have said to be entered in a special relationship.
But Russia is also wary of increasing Chinese influence in Asia so in future it must cooperate with India to contain any hegemony in its own neighbourhood.

2 Pakistan:
In the last week of August 2013, Russia and Pakistan held their first ever strategic dialogues which included a wide range of issues from Economy, politics, international issues, defence and security.
Russia backed Pakistan for observer status in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and is also supporting it for full membership and in turn Pakistan is supporting the Russian bid for membership at Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC).
India is watching very carefully this major development which followed the decades long frosty relationship.
Putin was to visit Pakistan last year but his program got cancelled at last moment, analysts say that Indias pressure worked on him.
But, we should not be wary of this relationship much because:

1. If India has moved ahead with its relationship with U.S. and Japan (with whom Russia doesnt feel comfortable) then Russia has every right to do so with Pakistan.

2. India-Russia-Pakistan is not a zero sum game for Russia and they will definitely not improve ties with Pakistan at the cost of India.

3. Russia-Pak relationship is for security and stake in Afghanistan after NATO forces withdrawal in 2014.





3 Japan:
Russia doesnt have good relations with Japan over Kuril Islands issue. And India has started developing good relations with Japan these days as both are vary of Chinese aggression.

4 US:
After the collapse of USSR and subsequent unipolar world, India tried to improve ties with US. US also responded well keeping in mind the huge market for their companies and starting from late nineties, our relations with US improved with brief period of sanctions after 1998 nuclear test.
Shifting attention towards Asia pacific by US is seen as trying to contain China and helping India in the process which is nearest rival.
Russia is wary of our relations with US and Japan but it should understand that these relations are important for us in wake of our own neighbourhood.


Way Ahead:
Even if we leave aside the past ties, India and Russia need each other very much in the todays scenario for below reasons:
Indias Benefit:
Still our 70% of military hardware is supplied by Russia so for its maintenance, repair, service we depend on them.
Indian Ocean Region is going to be the most important region strategically in future and we aspire to be Blue water navy for which submarines are essential and Russia is the only country which provides submarines to us. And Russia has been a reliable supplier of weapons and it has helped even in the time of crisis.
Russia being large producer of oil and natural gas and being large consumer India can get benefit from it and it can expand our energy sources.
Russias clout and its friendship can be used in dealing with China.
Russias Benefit:
India Being one of the biggest consumers of Oil & Gas, Russia can earn a lot. Russia depends a lot on the defence market of India. And with the decline of US, if Russia is trying to reassert itself, it has to take India along in the multi polar world.
Russian Companies can also get benefits from heavy infrastructure programs in India.




Conclusion:
Though weakened after soviet disintegration, Russia is far from spent force and slowly reasserting itself on international issues and challenging US hegemony which is declining.
Though wary of some of the relations of India, Russia took note of India not supporting US unilateral action against Syria at G20 which puts India in the league with Russia and few others not supporting war on Syria.
So Russia and India being the close friends for so long, will definitely understand each others concerns and their relations to other countries can never be at the cost of their own strong bonding.

Question Bank

5. marks
Write short note on recent Indo-Russian cooperation
10-15 marks
Despite close ties in defence equipment procurement, How do you think about Indo-Russian Strategic ties in current world.
20-25 marks
Do you think India has been able to strike a balance in its foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia and US?

Bibliography

1. ..wikipedia

2. .. http://www.globalpolitician.com/print.asp?id=4211

3. http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/1783591/column-how-strong-are-the-ties-that-bind-russia-and-india

4. http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/1783591/column-how-strong-are-the-ties-that-bind-russia-and-india

by Satyendra Singh