Irans Nuclear Program detailed

Irans Nuclear Program detailed
Irans nuclear program launched as early as in 1950 as a part of USs Atoms for Peace program.
Atoms for Peace Program, 1950:


* It is the first sincere attempt of US President D.D. Eisenhower to end the Brinkmanship in context to nuclear power in which he emphasized on the issue of transparency and cooperation in the field of nuclear energy in a speech dedicated to UNs General Assembly.

* Before that atomic development in the nukes and corners of the world was kept under strictest of secrecies that kept the world always pushing towards the brink of a civil war.

* Many countries acclaimed this endeavor and openly voiced their supports to this initiative for universal peace and human dignity and security.

* The first nuclear reactor in Pakistan and Iran were built during this program by American Machine and Foundry.
Iran ratifies Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), 1968:


* Its a watershed in the history of atomic development which is aimed at prevention of nuclear weapons and weapon technologies, to promote cooperation and peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

* It may be interpreted as a three pillar system that are:

* Non-proliferation

* Disarmament

* The right to peacefully use nuclear technology for civilian purposes

* It contains a preamble and 11 articles.

* It is binding on the participating states.

* Open for signature in 1968, the treaty effectively came into force in 1970

* A total of 190 states have joined the treaty, a testament of the treatys significance.

* 4 UN nations never joined NPT:

* India

* Pakistan

* Israel

* South Sudan

* North Korea initially signed it, but never came into compliance and finally withdrew it in 2003.

* It identifies 5 states, the 5 permanent members of UN Security Council (UNSC) , also called P5, as Nuclear Weapon States(NWS), they are:

* USA

* UK

* France

* China

* The Soviet Union

* Apart from these nations India, Pakistan and North Korea openly tested and declared of their possession of nuclear weapons, whereas Israel maintains a Policy of Deliberate Ambiguity in context to their possession of nuclear weapons.


* India-USA Civil Nuclear Deal, 2008:


* In 2006, India signed US-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act under which India agreed to separate its military and civil nuclear facilities and to place the civil nuclear facilities under International Agency for Atomic Energy (IAEA) safeguards. In exchange, India is allowed full access to civil nuclear energy.

* Despite being not a member of NPT India was granted this status owing to its clean non-proliferation record and its growing need for nuclear energy emerging from rapid industrialization and a billion-plus population.

* In 2008, IAEA approved the India Safeguard agreement.

* Later in 2008, India was granted the waiver at the Nuclear Supply Group (NSG) meeting held at Vienna, Austria.

* As a result, India could commence trade in nuclear materials with other willing countries.

* Any kind of nuclear export by all major countries to Pakistan and Israel is prohibited by this treaty.

* Pakistan made a bid to reach similar agreement, which was rebuffed by USA and other NSG members owing to lack of high energy requirement in Pakistan and also due to its bad proliferation records.

* Nuclear Supply Group (NSG):


* Established in 1975.

* 46 members, including P5+ 1.

* NSG is a multinational body concerned with reducing nuclear proliferation by controlling the export and re-transfer of nuclear materials and by improving safeguard and protection to existing materials.

* Founded in response to India Nuclear Test in 1974.

* The NPT countries realized that certain non-nuclear weapon technology could be easily modified to develop nuclear weapons and felt that export of nuclear materials, equipments and technology should be limited further.

* Another advantage was that to bring the non-NPT and non-Zangger Committee nations (specifically France, at that time) in the ambit of non-proliferation.
Zangger Committee Nations:
Zangger Committee Nations or Nuclear Export Committee nations sprang from Article III.2 of NPT under which IAEA safeguards must be applied to nuclear exports.
Each state party of Zangger Committee undertakes not to provide: a. Source or special fissionable material and b. equipment or technology used for the processing of fissionable materials to any non NWS unless it is subject to the safeguard required by this Article of NPT.
P5 + 1:
P5 +1 or E3+3 is a group of 6 World Powers who joined the diplomatic effort with Iran in 2006, in respect of Irans nuclear program.
P5 is the 5 permanent members of UNSC, i.e., China, France, Russia, UK and USA + 1 , Germany.
Role of Germany:
Germany is a key trading partner of Iran. Irans nuclear program depends mainly upon the imports of equipments and others from Germany.

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT):


* Adopted by UN General Assembly, in 1996.

* A multilateral treaty by which states agrees to ban and not to encourage in any sort of nuclear explosion, for military or civil, inside the region of their control.

* It is yet to come in force. 8 states are yet to ratify or sign it out of 44 states listed Annex-II States. Among these states:


Signed but havent ratified yetHavent signed it yet

ChinaIndia

EgyptNorth Korea

IranPakistan

Israel

USA







* CTBT Organisation Preparatory Commission monitors nuclear explosions through forensic seismology, hydro acoustics, infrasound and radionuclide monitoring.




* A change in the mindset of Iran after the 1979 Revolution in which Shah Government was toppled.

* After various twist and turns in the international diplomatic equations with Iran, in 2002 the issue caught an eye of concern of the major world countries.

Discovery of Secret Plants in Iran, 2002:


* Mujahedeen Khalq, an Iranian dissident group also known as the M.E.K., obtains and shares documents revealing a clandestine nuclear program previously unknown to the United Nations.

* The program includes a vast uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a heavy water reactor plant at Arak.

* The United States accuses Tehran of an"across-the-board pursuit of weapons of mass destruction".
Teheran Agreed Statement 2003 &Paris Accord, 2004:


* Both Agreed between EU-3 (France, Germany and UK) and Iran.

* Iran agrees a suspension of enrichment and re-processing related activities.
Iran denies EUs Comprehensive Proposal, 2005:


* Iran strongly denies EUs proposal for a diplomatic, scientific and economic cooperation in exchange of limited nuclear activity of Iran.

* The argument was that the proposal was not in conformity with Article I and II of NPT, which confer Iran the inalienable right to develop, research, produce and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

* UN approved its first round of sanctions on Irans nuclear export and import in an attempt to curb Irans nuclear activity.

* The sanction was further extended to Irans petrochemical, gold trading as Iran continued to enrich Uranium and IAEA discovers new instances of Irans enrichment program exceeding the safe level.

* US bolsters sanctions on Iran blacklisting a number of companies in Iran accusing them of helping Iran in enriching nuclear fuel.

* Irans economy goes in a shamble.

* Iran kept defending its enrichment programme claiming it to be aimed just for peaceful energy generation and for civilian purpose and the sanctions kept pushing Iran into the corner.
But there a few more countries like Israel who are purportedly performing clandestine nuclear activities, then why so much pressure on Iran particularly?

Because:

1. Other states like India, Israel and Pakistan who are supposed to possess nuclear weapons have not ratified NPT. So the scope of inspection and intervention are limited there.

2. Iran ratified NPT in its nascent stage. But over the years IAEA has time and again found evidences of secret enrichment programmes of Iran that breach the conventions with IAEA. Although NPT on its own doesnt mention any strict level upto which a nation is allowed to enrich and although article IV of the treaty confers the unalienable right on the states to develop, research, produce and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, there are certain facts that drives us to the notion that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon:

1. Nuclear device is based on Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) U-235 or plutonium. In natural Uranium the share of U-235 isotope is around 0.7%. Natural uranium has to be transferred into hexafluoride for the purpose of enrichment. For weapon purposes one needs a concentration over 90% of U-235. Once it reaches the enrichment over 90%, it has to be converted into metallic uranium. Only metallic uranium can be used to for a metal hemisphere the core requirement of a nuclear bomb. Iran has in its disposal sufficient supply of uranium to carry on this process. There are two uranium mines in Iran one operating and one unused, that are capable of producing 20 tons of uranium per year. Iran possesses the technology required to prepare a nuclear weapon.

2. Almost 35,000 kg of uranium hexafluoride was discovered in Iran Natanz plant centrifuges out of which approximately 33 kg was enriched upto 20%. But for civilian and peaceful purposes enrichment upto 3.5% is sufficient which corresponds to the civilian Light Water Reactor. That in all enough Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) to manufacture two nuclear bombs once enriched.

3. The above figures are only based on the known activities in facilities under the IAEA safeguards. Iran is supposed to possess additional clandestine enrichment programmes that are out of the supervision of IAEA.

4. Hence this sizeable nuclear programme which is out of proportion to legitimate peaceful needs of the existing or the projected Iranian civilian nuclear programme.

5. P1 type of centrifuges, given its high failure rate and vulnerability to software attacks are not ideal for the purpose of nuclear weapon. Iran is pursuing P2 type of new generation centrifuges and also making rapacious attempts to upgrade its existing centrifuges.

6. Iran is pursuing the option of a heavy water moderated nuclear uranium reactor (ar Arak), which if readied, might be used for the production of plutonium.

7. Iran has in the past shown interest in technologies that might be used to separate plutonium from the spent fuel.

8. Iran has been involved in acquiring nuclear weapon technology through the Ab dal Qadeer Khan network.

9. Most of the Irans R&D, construction and enrichment effort in the past have been carried out in a secret manner violating Irans existing IAEA safeguard agreement and they are to an increasing degree being carried out in underground facilities that are better protected from any possible external military action.

10. Iran is pursuing ballistic missile technology (short, medium and intermediate range) for military purposes. Given their poor accuracy, the acquisition of such weapon system only makes sense in case it has been adopted to be used as a delivery vehicle of a nuclear weapon.

11. Many prominent Iranian politicians has time and again drawn statement according to which wiping out Israel is a legitimate strategic option.

12. Prominent Iranian politicians have touted their state as the main source of resistance and defiance of the US and the international community as a whole. Without nuclear weapons such defiance cannot be maintained for long.

* What is centrifuge?
A mechanism to enrich uranium
All the Sanctions on Iran:

By UN:

* Ban on all enrichment and reprocessing activities.

* Ban on supply of nuclear related materials and technologies to Iran and froze the assets of key individuals and companies associated with such activities.

* Called upon its states to monitor the activities of Iranian banks, to track the Iranian ships and aircrafts

* Ban on any kind of activities of Iran related to development of ballistic missiles.

* Froze the assets of Iran Revolutionary Corp Guards (IRCG), Islamic Republic or Irans Shipping Lines and recommended its states to inspect Iranian cargos, prohibited states to offer servicing to Iranian vessels involved in prohibitive activities.

* Ban on financial activities and banking sector of Iran. Prohibited Irans banks to open branch of their territory and prevented them to get in any kind of relationships or transactions with their banks.
By US:

* Ban on almost all companies doing business with Iran.

* Ban on all Iranian imports.

* Ban on Irans oil sector and oil companies.

* Ban on all financial institutions of Iran.

* Sanction against Iran Air and Tidewater Middle East Co.

* Ban on Irans Central Bank and other commercial banks. Froze all Iranian governments properties in the foreign exchange holdings in the banks of other countries.

* Ban targeting on Irans energy sector which provides for 80% revenue of their government.

* Ban on Major Iranian electronic producers, Internet policing agencies, State broadcasting authority. That targeted Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting responsible for overseas production of Iranian television and radio channels.

* On Iranian Cyber Police and Communication Regulating Authority.
By EU:

* Imposed restrictions on cooperation with Iran, Irans foreign trade, financial services, energy sector and transfer of technologies.

* Banned the provision of insurance and reinsurance by insurers of member states to Iran owned companies and its vessels.

* Iranian banks were disconnected from SWIFT network, the world hub of electronic financial transaction.
Apart from these:

* Canada imposed similar set of bans of Iran separately.

* India enacted a ban on exports of all items, materials, goods and technologies that could contribute Irans nuclear programme.

* Various other countries imposed separate bans or terminated international affiliations with Iran in the backdrop of the sanctions already imposed to it by other countries or organizations.
Effects of Sanctions on Iran:


* Irans nuclear programme had to face numerous difficulties to develop further due to the lack of materials and technologies needed to pursue the programme.

* Irans export declined substantially. Oil export decreased by almost 40% contributing to distorted trade deficit

* Owning to the bans on Irans crude oil sector, many oil companies and MNCs had to withdraw from Iran. Production of Oil declined.

* Iran lost almost USD 60 billon of investment every year.

* Being disallowed to trade in dollars, euro initially Iran had to search for a buyer for trading for a long period of time.

* Even when it managed to get partners to trade, its vessels had to travel long way to bypass regions into which it had lost its permit due to sanctions => profit shrank in huge margins

* China is Irans biggest crude oil customer. Though Iran was trading with China in Renminbi, it cut its bulk import to avoid a possible US ban on its financial companies. Even India (2nd large customer, 12% of Indias total oil import from Iran) had cut oil import extensively.

* Fiscal deficit grew to a large dimension, economy stagnated.

* Inflation was near to 25%, Irans Central bank was expecting a hyperinflation.

* Though no sanction was imposed on humanitarian trading, health system suffered due to delayed transfer of drugs and medical equipments. Many people died from diseases like cancer, thalassemia and other severe diseases.

Why does Iran simply not walk out of NPT and do whatever it wants in peace without these whiney guys?

Because every time Uncle Sam frowns at something, the voice of the world starts quivering
Anyway, according to Article X of NPT, in exercising the sovereignty a state have the right to withdraw from the treaty giving a 3 months notice to all other parties of the treaty. But,

* Strategically,

* It may strictly portray Irans motivation to pursue a nuclear bomb.

* In case it moves out of NPT, Russia will most probably cease to support its nuclear energy process by providing materials and technologies. So in any case, its nuclear program is bound to suffer.

* Economically,

* The world powers may refer Iran to the UNSC and it might face a set of fresh new sanctions.

* Against the backdrop of present sanctions and a stagnating economic profile, Iran is not in a position to carry on its activities in isolation anymore.



* Geo-politically,

* There is an open animosity and rivalry among the Middle East countries.

* In case it walks out of NPT, an anti-Iranian movement is likely to take place under the guidance of US.
Also,
Iran wont be able to drink expensive wines and juicy bananas from Russia.
From a different viewpoint, the impending dangers of a nuclear armed Iran are:

* It might decouple the region from broader strategic context and impair the regional strategic balance as well. It might encourage an inexorable rush for nuclear weapons in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Gulf States, Egypt, Syria, Turkey) and to an anti Iranian alliance under US. It might well increase the nuclear competition between Iran and Israel to an alarming dimension.

* It will pose direct threat to NATO member states and widen the existing cleavage between US and its non nuclear allies in Europe over the USs nuclear guarantee to the latters security.

* NPT might collapse completely and it may spell out the end of the peaceful non-proliferation regime of over 40 years. The global powers are likely to get divided two separate groups of nuclear and non-nuclear states. International affiliations and relations to suffer bad shocks.

However, after a long period of rivalry, frustration and open animosity, Iran and P5 + 1 finally came to settle on an interim agreement in November, 2013 in Geneva.
The Interim Nuclear Agreement between Iran and P5+1:

The temporary deal for next 6 months before a more comprehensive agreement between them looks like this:

* Halting the progress of Irans nuclear programme:
Iran will:

* Halt uranium enrichment above 5%.

* Dilute the existing stockpile of highly (20%) enriched uranium below 5% or convert them to a form not suitable for further enrichment. [ as per critics, it would be better to have agreed to dilute the stock outside of Iran]

* Not install any additional centrifuge, postpone any new enrichment programme, not use any next-generation centrifuge to enrich.

* Not commission or fuel Arak reactor, install any additional reactors or any reprocessing capacity.


* Unprecedented transparency and intrusive monitoring of Irans nuclear programme:
Iran will provide:

* Daily access by IAEA inspectors to Natanz and Fordow.

* IAEA access to centrifuge assembly facility.

* IAEA access to uranium mines and mills.

* Secret information on design of Arak reactor and also more frequent access to the Arak reactor.

* Verification Mechanism:

* A joint commission of Iran and P5 + 1.

* The joint commission will work with IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present concerns regarding Irans nuclear programme.

* Limited, Temporary and Reversible Relief to Iran:

* No additional sanction on Irans nuclear programme for next 6 months if Iran abides by the deal.

* Suspend certain sanction on gold and precious metals.

* Partially phase out bans on Irans auto sector, petrochemical exports potentially providing Iran USD 1.5 billion in revenue.

* Allow purchase of Iranian oil at their currently significant reduced levels and release USD 4.2 billion in installments that international market owes to Iran.

* Humanitarian Transactions:

* US exempted any humanitarian transactions like agricultural goods, food, pharmaceuticals and medical equipments from sanctions.

* Facilitate the humanitarian transactions on the face of the agreement.

* Limited Relief:

* In total USD 7 billion will be transferred to Iran that was frozen in the bank accounts of other countries till now.

* Maintain Economic pressure on Iran:

* Sanction affecting crude oils sale will continue.

* Sanction affecting petroleum product export to Iran stays.

* The vast majority of fund of around USD 100 billion in foreign exchange holdings still remain inaccessible to Iran.

* Sanction against Central Bank of Iran and other commercial banks and other financial institutions, sanctions on ballistic missile program, all UNSC sanctions continue.

Reactions after the deal:


* Iran gets a chance to overhaul its slugged economy and also to enrich uranium for civil energy and peaceful purposes. So the deal offers a great opportunity to Iran.

* For US and EU, after the 1979 revolution they have been able to strike a comprehensive deal with Iran regarding its nuclear programme that will enable them to get a clearer and more transparent picture of what Iran is actually up to. So the deal marks a watershed for them.

* Israel, a staunch supporter of US, looks upon the deal as a historic mistake and fears that Iran might well carry on their clandestine process of enrichment even after the deal while forging an amicable relationship with the West to get rid of the sanctions. It may also lead falter US Israel relationship which is already under stress.

* Saudi Arabia, a challenging regional rival of Iran, also evinced disappointment over the deal since it may lead to emergence of Irans clout in the West.

* For India, however, it doesnt make a really big difference in the amount of oil import from Iran and before six months India cant strike a more comprehensive deal in crude oil with Iran. Also till now India was trading with Iran in rupee, but after the deal the transactions will take place in dollars again. Speculations are that it might lead to a decline in Indian forex reserves with concomitant rupee volatility once again.
The probable future strategic positions centering the deal:

Irans Geostrategic location:

* It is the gateway to Central Asia and South-West Asia.

* Connected to Caucasia and Europe in north.

* Hence its pivotal geography has allowed it to extend its Persian ethno-culture, linguistic, religious economic and geopolitical influence over the heart of Central Asia, Caucasia and beyond.
USAs stake at the nuclear deal: a delicate equation

* The growing influence of the developing Asia, especially China and Russia is a threat to prevailing US Eco-political hegemony.

* After the sanctions of EU and US on Iran, and after Iran had been thrown out of the pacts that USA signed with the petro-monarchies with Saudi Arabia in the head, it lost the opportunity to trade its oil in dollar.

* Iran employed an array of mechanisms especially in the financial sphere to balance the effect of the crippling sanctions.

* It started to trade in Euro initially, but after successful US pressure on the banking sector of EU, Iran was disallowed to trade in Euro even.

* Hence it turned to the East and started trading with China and India in Yuan and Rupee respectively. Iran even traded oil with turkey in gold. Iran found a good use of century old barter system for trading purpose and hence insulating a large part of the heavy financial pressure that was being imposed on it by the West.

* On the other hand, a part of the world petro-trades was going on currencies other than dollar, with concomitant decline in the value of dollar in international oil market.

* At this juncture, USs petrodollar standard came under severe strain and it rendered crucial to forge a tie with Iran.

* Also many commentators dubbing the Geneva accord as a sharp political move to unsettle ties between the emerging global powers, chiefly China and Russia.


Russia in European Energy Sector:

* Russia enjoys a monopoly in European market in export of natural gas. Russian company Gazprom, with its numerous subsidiaries supplies gas to EU.

* Russia accounts for more than 35% of EUs total gas import and more than 30% of EUs total crude oil import.

* 80% of the gas pipelines from Russia to Europe pass through Ukraine. Since 2005 the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine has been sharp on issues of pricing and tariffs. This in turn, bruising the EU market with lots of uncertainties.

* So European countries always in a search of other gas sources and routes in order to diversify the supply and curb the Russian monopoly.

* As per a report of European Commission Europes natural gas consumption will increase by almost 60% by the year 2030. Hence Russian supply will not be sufficient to meet the consumption need of Europe.

* Thus anyway EU needs to explore other avenues to meet the natural gas demands.

Nabucco West Pipeline: A West enterprise

* An EU and USA backed pipeline.

* Signed in 2009.

* It will assume supply from the Shah Deniz basin in Caspian Sea of Azerbaijan through the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP).

* Runs from Turkey-Bulgaria border to Austria.

* But the supply of gas through Nabucco pipeline will be very insufficient without participation of Iran since the Shah Deniz authority preferred another Trans-Adriatic Pipeline over Nabucco in 2013.

* In the wake of an interim agreement between Iran and P5+1 on nuclear issue, and phased lifting of sanctions that were imposed on Iran in its international trade of oil and natural gas, Iran will emerge as a centerpiece of this project.

* If Iran stays bound by the agreement that is supposed to last for 6 months after which a more comprehensible deal in the matter of nuclear energy and other eco-political subjects is supposed to be preached, It is due to play a significant role in the revival of Nabucco pipeline and hence helping EU and USA to curb sharply growing Russian influence in the West.

* In this case Russia will be upset by Irans policy.
Irans trump card: IIS pipeline

* A friendship pipeline among the governments of Iran, Iraq and Syria.

* Signed in 2011, construction work delayed due to Civil war in Syria.

* Maximum amount of gas will be drawn from Irans South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf.

* South Pars is the largest gas field of the world in the Persian Gulf, shared between Iran and Qatar.

* Once this develops, there is a future proposal of further extending it to Greece through an under-sea channel.

* In Greece a node of Russias Europe bound South Stream pipeline is also planned.

* If Greece becomes the junction of these two pipelines then the western dream of importing gas from Persian Gulf through an independent route bypassing Russia will be extinguished.

* Hence Iran plays a crucial role in choosing between Nabucco and IIS.





South Stream: Bypass Ukraine

* From Russia to EU through Black Sea, bypassing Ukraine

* To iron out the difficulties faced by Russia and EU to export through Ukraine owing to the Russia Ukraine Gas dispute.

* Construction started in 2012, first commercial delivery supposed to be in 2015.

* It is considered to be a rival project of Nabucco and Russian initiative to maintain its clout in the Western gas market.
Chabahar port: what India is eyeing on:

* A Sea Port in Chah Bahar in southeastern Iran.

* Only Iranian port with direct access to ocean.

* It is partially developed by India in 1991.

* After the interim agreement, this port may play a major role to Indian access to the landlocked Afghanistan. At present all the routes to Afghanistan passes through Pakistan, so the chabahar port once developed will be the first route to Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan. It will also be another Indian channel to trade with Iran as well.

-Bishwarup Bhattacharjee


Reference:
www.thehindu.com
en.wikipedia.org
http://www.ispk.uni-kiel.de/fileadmin/user_upload/thumbpublikationen/Publikationen_Krause/Krause_Mallory_Iran.pdf
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/23/world/meast/iran-nuclear-deal-details/
http://www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2005/npttreaty.html
Some more sites probably, cant remember exactly at this moment.