Is the rising might of Asian giants- India and China,

Is the rising might of Asian giants- India and China, the harbinger of a new Cold War era?



The Cold War era is not a happy memory for most of the world. A constant threat of nuclear holocaust, persistent wrangling between opposing nations and enormous pressures on non-aligned countries like India exemplified that time. When the Berlin wall came down in 1989, many thought that halcyon days were near. And, sure enough, for a few years the world was at ease. But, with the advent of atomic powers like India & China, peaceful times are at risk again.

It is quite natural for two neighbouring countries to be competitive. This is also desirable to some extent. Competition spurs both nations to do better. India sees Chinas edge in manufacturing & infrastructure and intends to replicate their policies in these sectors here. China is also trying to learn from India and is putting in place policies to promote English education and IT industry in China. It is also projecting its soft power much more decisively just like India. But, of late, this healthy competition is degenerating into a bitter rivalry which may have catastrophic consequences for the geopolitical stability of South Asia.

Chinas string of pearls policy to surround India from all sides with military installations & trading points and its tacit support to Pakistan including nuclear aid despite Pakistans sponsorship of terrorism have been major sore points. Many recent events illustrate the increasingly fractious relationship between China and India:

* Chinas pursuit to cosy up with the Sri Lankan Government after India-Sri Lanka relationship lost some of its sheen in the wake of Indias vote against Sri Lanka on a US-sponsored resolution addressing war crime issues. PM Manmohan Singhs decision to skip the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meet recently under pressure from Tamil Nadu based parties hasnt helped matters.

* Chinas failure to persuade Pakistan to accept a greater Indian role in Afghanistan.

* Chinas recent incursion across the LAC into Indias Depsang bulge area in the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) sector of Ladakh and refusal to retreat for three weeks worsened the bilateral atmosphere. India had to agree to destroy its bunkers in Chumar area on the Ladakh-Himachal Pradesh border to resolve the row. Chumar is one of the few areas where India had better lines of supply and infrastructure than the Chinese. Over 500 such incursions have been reported in 2013.

* Chinas decision to issue stapled visas to residents of Arunachal Pradesh is another hurdle.

* Indias increasing cooperation with Japan has been met with scepticism from China in view of China and Japans disputes over the Senkaku/ Diaoyu Islands and Chinas unilateral declaration of East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone.

* Chinas disputes with Vietnam are bringing Vietnam closer to India as seen in the recent signing of eight pacts, including agreement on energy cooperation and defence. Vietnam has also offered India seven oil blocks in South China Sea, including three on an exclusive basis which may anger China which lays claim to a portion of South China Sea that has been under Vietnams jurisdiction. Also, India continues to harbour the Dalai Lama who has been traditionally seen as a disruptive influence by China and the Tibetan Government in-exile also has its seat in India.

Just like the earlier cold war, India and China have also been scouting for partners worldwide. India has USA and Japans support. Russia is also leaning towards India while many communist and dictatorial nations like Cuba and North Korea may end up supporting China.

It is not that efforts are not being made to mend fences from both sides. Chinese premier Li Keqiang's first foreign trip as prime minister was to India and was aimed to help settle border dispute and boost economic ties with India. PM Manmohan Singh also visited China in October and his visit culminated in the signing of a Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA). Some salient features of the BDCA were:

* No tailing of each others troops.

* A hotline between generals and additional border personnel meeting points along the LAC in all 3 sectors- Western (Ladakh), Middle (Himachal, Uttrakhand) and Eastern (Sikkim, North-East).

* Exercising maximum self-restraint and not resorting to escalatory steps.

A total of 9 agreements were signed which also included a MoU on Strengthening Co-operation on Trans-border Rivers. But, due to Chinas continuing stapled visa policy for Indian areas to which it lays claim, a much anticipated visa liberalization pact couldnt be signed.

India and China are the two most populous and fastest growing economies of the world. Tensions between them are in no ones interest. China needs to respect Indias territorial sovereignty and stop trespassing into Indian territories. All border related issues should be sorted out by dialogue and consensus. India should also tread carefully in its Look East policy without ruffling Chinese feathers since many East Asian countries like Vietnam and Japan have unresolved issues with China relating to the resource rich East & South China Sea. India & China should work towards reaching the $100 billion bilateral trade goal by 2015 and also in increasing multilateral trade in the Asian region through agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). They should also collaborate to put forward and safeguard the issues affecting developing nations at forums like the WTO (agricultural subsidies) and UNFCCC (Loss & Damage, Green Climate Fund). A stable India- China relationship is imperative for lasting peace in the world. Both countries need to work out their issues mutually and ensure that South Asia emerges as worlds new power centre.

by Anjesh Bharatiya,

References:

* http://www.firstpost.com/world/ladakh-incursion-india-china-face-off-at-the-gate-of-hell-721363.html

* http://www.defencenews.in/defence-news-internal.asp?get=new&id=1554

* http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-23/news/43326426_1_visa-regime-border-defence-cooperation-agreement-stapled-visas

* http://in.china-embassy.org/eng/zygxc/

* Sino-Indian Relations: Sixty Years of Experience and Enlightenment - Amb. Cheng Ruisheng (The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS)