India's approach to Asia Pacific

India's approach to Asia Pacific
Several political, security, economic and socio-cultural factors are at play making Asia Pacific a highly dynamic region. India needs to have a long term strategy to make use of the opportunities arising in the Asia-Pacific while keeping in view the security challenges.
The Asia-Pacific is marked by the following key trends:

* rise of China;

* the rebalancing strategy of the US;

* a regional architecture underpinned by centrality of ASEAN;

* the growing importance of the Indian Ocean region and maritime issues;

* the growing salience of non-traditional security threats. .
Rise of China:
China's rise has created a flux.

* An economic giant, with a GDP of USD 7.3 trillion (2011-World Bank) & an annual military expenditure of Yuan 650 billion (approx USD 103 billion) in 2012,

* China has overtaken Japan in economic and military terms and may overtake the US economy in the next 10-20 years depending upon the growth rate differential between the two countries.

* Chinas rise is altering the balance of power globally & regionally.

* The confidence in China's peaceful rise and peaceful development has been seriously dented due to rising tensions in South China Sea and in East China Sea.

* The new leadership is nationalistic & sharply focused on Chinas core interests.

* China's rapid military modernisation and projection of its power beyond immediate neighbourhood and in the West Pacific, has raised apprehensions among its neighbours.

* It has developed a powerful navy with aircraft carriers, submarines, anti-ship missiles which is rivalling that of Japan and the US.

* China is following Anti Access Anti-Denial (A2D) strategy to deter the US from entering the island chain in the area of Chinese influence.

* The rising tide of nationalism in China has caused anxieties among neighbours.

* Chinas formulations on core interests with attendant focus on sovereignty, has created doubts in the minds of the neighbouring countries about Chinas intentions.

* China regards the South China Sea as its internal waters. This will have major impact not only in the neighbourhood but also for international shipping.
Chinas rise has also benefited the neighbours,

* particularly in the economic field. For most countries,

* China is number one trading partner. China-ASEAN trade is $ 380 billion.

* The ASEAN economies have got integrated with that of China.

* People-to-people contacts between China and its neighbours have also deepened with greater connectivity, openness and transparency.

* China is getting integrated with the regional architectures. This has increased Chinas role in regional stability.

* For instance, China has an FTA with ASEAN.

* The ASEAN countries are part of a global supply chain which passes through China to global markets. Thus the economic and social interdependence has increased.

* China is participating in RCEP negotiations. RECP will bring about a higher level of economic integration between the ASEAN, China, Japan, Australia and India.
The future is uncertain.

* Chinas economic performance is suspect and riddled with many problems.

* How long will China maintain its growth and what will be the impact of the slow-down of Chinese economy in the region will be worth studying? China presents a complex picture.

* The talk of containment of China is problematic given the growing interdependence between China and most major economies of the region.
US rebalancing strategy

* The US has been a key player in the security and economic architecture of the region.

* The biggest challenge before the US is to adjust to the rise of China.

* Having got entrapped in the highly expensive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and having been affected by the economic slowdown, the US is in a perilous condition.= compelled to reduce its defence budget.

* Many analysts believe that the US is declining vis--vis China although it will remain a military and economic power in the foreseeable future.

* The US also has the ability to bounce back due to its vast capabilities in innovation. Yet, according to some conjectures China will overtake the US as number one economy in the next two decades.

* US has signalled a shift in its policies towards Asia. Doubts have arisen among the US allies in its ability to shore up its key military alliances in the region, for instance, with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and Thailand. .

* In recent times the rebalancing strategy has been further elaborated by officials in Obama 2 administration. Economic and cultural dimensions of the strategy have been elaborated.

* The aim of rebalancing strategy has been defined to be the strengthening of the existing alliances, searching for new partners (India, Indonesia), forging economic partnerships (TPP) and achieving a constructive relationship with China.

* But, Beijing has taken rebalancing as an attempt to contain China.

* It clearly is suspicious of the US partnerships especially the one with India.

* The Chinese are developing their own A2D strategies to prevent the US from coming too close to the Chinese shores.

* The Chinese assertiveness in South China Sea, East China Sea and other areas are part of its strategy to keep the US away and to signal Chinese area of influence.

* The US is concerned about China but it has to avoid open confrontation.

* The US statements on China indicate the US desire to engage with China as deeply as practical.

* The strategic and economic dialogue between the two countries has been institutionalised.

* Yet, the relationship between the two countries is far from smooth. Elements of competition and confrontation are manifest in the US-China relations.

* The rest of the world is also unsure about the direction in which the US-China relationship is proceeding.
How other countries are readjusting?
It is in this shifting background that other countries are adjusting their policies.
ASEAN Region

* The ASEAN Region, traditionally a region divided by numerous internal fault lines, has sought to put its act together particularly since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

* ASEAN countries have sought to resolve their disputes through consensus and dialogue.

* With a combined GDP of over $ 2 trillion (2011) and total trade of $ 2.4 trillion (2011), ASEAN has emerged as a formidable economic force.

* Yet stability in ASEAN is crucially dependent upon internal as well as external factors.

* China and the US factors have brought ASEAN to a crossroads. ASEAN unity is under strain.

* Vietnam and the Philippines are directly affected by China's rise.

* The South China Sea is a hotspot of tension and is likely to remain so. The mistrust between China and ASEAN is increasing because of South China Sea issues.

* The ASEAN is trying to forge an economic union by 2015.

* ASEAN+6 have Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) even as the US is pushing for a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) which excludes China.

* Some countries like Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Indonesia have doubts about joining the TPP negotiations.
Japan

* is getting revitalised.

* Japans New Defence Policy guidelines indicate that Japan is likely to devote increasing attention to recrafting its military strategy and enhancing its defence postures.

* Chinas assertiveness and North Koreas nuclear programme are serious security concerns for Japan.

* In the altered scenarios, Japan is focusing on India as a security partner.

* Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs visit to Japan got worldwide headlines as it signalled deepening of India-Japan strategic and security partnership.

* Prime Minister Abe is reported to have proposed a strategy whereby Australia, India, Japan and the US state of Hawaii form a diamond to safeguard the maritime commons stretching from the Indian Ocean region to the Western Pacific I am prepared to invest to the greater possible extent, Japans capabilities in this security diamond.

* The Indian Prime Minister spoke of India and Japan as natural and indispensable partners fora peaceful, stable, cooperative and prosperous future for the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean regions.

* Clearly, India-Japan relations are important in the context of peace and stability in Asia Pacific.
Australia

* It would be useful to see how Australia is adjusting to the rise of China.

* Australia sees opportunities for itself in the so-called Asian Century.

* It welcomes the rise of China and accepts its military growth as natural.

* Australia is pulling out all stops to deepen its relations with China at every level.

* At the same time, Australia is also hedging against China by building its own defence capabilities and supporting US rebalancing & pivoting to the Asia Pacific.

* It is seeking partnerships with India, Japan and South Korea.

* In particular, Australia takes note of Indias growing strategic weight in the region and assigns special importance to India in the context of Indo-Pacific.

* It regards Indian and pacific oceans as one strategic arch.

* India needs to deepen its relations with Australia, particularly in the context of Australias emergence as a major supplier of coal and possibly uranium in the future. Australia is also helping India in education and skill developments.
South Korea

* South Korea faces a volatile security environment, particularly in the context of North Koreas nuclear and missile programme and its unpredictable behaviour.

* South Koreans pay major emphasis on the protection of the sea lanes of communication in the East Asian region and seek cooperation with India in this regard.

* They also take note of Chinese hegemonic outlook in the region.

* While maintaining close ties with India, the Cheonan incident and Yeon Pyieng Island shelling in 2010 have highlighted the increasing military trend in that area.

* The RoKs realise heavily on international maritime lanes and shipping.

* The South Koreans also want maritime cooperation with India such as joint naval exercises.
Opportunities for India

* Strong strategic relationship with Japan is in Indias favour.

* India has strategic partnerships with the US, Japan, South Korea and Australia. These countries want to have closer security cooperation particularly in the maritime sector.

* India-Japan-US trilateral dialogue should focus on Asia-Pacific issues including security cooperation. These partnerships would promote stability in the region.

* China should realise that India has legitimate interests in the region.

* What should be Indias long term strategy in Asia-Pacific? With the shift of centre of gravity to the Asia-Pacific region, India must seek a role in the shaping of political, economic, social and security process in the region.

* Not doing so could adversely affect Indias interests.

* Indias strategy should be to seek deeper engagement & economic integration with the Asia-Pacific region.

* India should be particularly engaged in the security dialogues and processes in the region.

* India enjoys high credibility in ASEAN and East Asia. India and ASEAN have raised their partnership to strategic level. The challenge is to deepen it further.

* The ASEAN-India Commemorate Summit Vision Statement has identified a number of projects for cooperation in the fields of political and security, economic, socio-cultural and developmental, connectivity in regional architecture.

* Earlier, the ASEAN-India Eminent Persons Report (2013) had identified even a larger spread of projects for cooperation. Thus, there is no dearth of ideas.

* However, what is required is the identification of resources, establishment of institutional framework, monitoring mechanisms, coordination etc. to ensure a timely implementation of these projects.

* The next big trend in ASEAN region will be ASEAN economic union & RCEP. = open up opportunities for India.

* The success of ASEAN-India cooperation will depend upon how rapidly the two sides move towards economic integration through FTA in services and in future through RCEP.

* The connectivity between ASEAN and India has been talked about for a long time but the progress has been slow.

* Similarly, the regional cooperation, particularly within the framework of BIMSTEC and Ganga-Mekong Cooperation, the Trilateral Highway etc. has also been slow. The two sides need to focus on implementation issues.

* One of the weaknesses of Indias Look East Policy has been the relatively less involvement of Indias North East in it. = addressed urgently

* The benefits of the Look East Policy, particularly, the increased trade, better connectivity, greater socio-cultural links, cooperation in the area of capacity building, education, youth etc. must be felt by the people of North East, who are otherwise sceptical of the LEP.

* Therefore, it is essential that the governments in the North East and the social and cultural institutions in the region should be involved in the formulation and implementation of India-ASEAN policies.

* For instance, an India-ASEAN cultural centre could be set up in Guwahati.

* Similarly, Imphal could host an India-ASEAN sports academy.

* A study of local cultures can be undertaken through an NE university.

* A special programme can be designed for capacity building targeting the youth of the North-East.

* Trade facilitation centres encouraging trade between the North-East and the South-East Asia could be set up in the North-East.

* The government could also consider setting up the branches of these institutions in the North-East.



* Andaman and Nicobar Islands should be brought into the framework of India-ASEAN relations.

* Giving due consideration to the concerns of the tribes, it is possible to develop some of the islands, particularly, in Nicobar, for tourism.

* Nicobari youth are keen to take to modernism. Scholarships for A&N youth could be provided to make them a stakeholder.

* In terms of trade linkages the Dawei port offers numerous opportunities.

* India and Thailand agreed to develop Chennai-Dawei corridor project. Dawei is a city in southeastern Myanmar and is capital of Tanintharyi Region.

* Myanmar government has already approved plans to develop a large port and industrial estate in Dawei with the Italian-Thai Development Public Company Limited (ITD) as a major contractor

* People-to-people connectivity needs to be improved. But this will require liberations of the visa regime between India & ASEAN countries.

* India needs to pay special attention to Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore on bilateral level. These countries can help India in raising Indian regional profile.

* Additionally, India needs to focus on Indian Ocean issues and those of Ocean governance.

* India needs to take active role in the shaping of the agenda of IOR-ARC. In recent times the Australians and the Japanese have talked about the concept of Indo-Pacific.
Northern Sea Route: Humming with Activity

* The Northern Sea Route runs along the northern coast of Russia from Bering Strait in the west to Novaya Zemlaya in the East for about five thousand kilometres and is described as follows:

Where?
The aquatic space adjacent to the northern coast of the Russian Federation, covering internal waters, territorial sea, the contiguous zone and the exclusive economic zone of the Russian Federation and bounded by division lines across maritime areas with the United States and the parallel Cape Dezhnev in the Bering Strait, west meridian of the Cape of Desire to the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, eastern coastline of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, and the western boundaries of the Matochkin, Kara, and Yugorsky Straits.

* China and Japan are positioning themselves to take advantage of the opening of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Presently, the Chinese shipping company COSCOs container ship is transiting through the NSR carrying exports from a Chinese port to Europe.


* Japan is also alive to the benefits from the NSR.

* Last year the Russian gas company GAZPROM delivered a consignment of liquefied natural gas to Japan using the NSR during November 9-18.

* The LNG ship Ob River travelled from Hammerfest in Norway to Tobata port in Japan safely in a matter of ten days.

* Why? =The rapid melting of the Arctic Sea ice due to global warming has led to the opening of the NSR. The passage is open for ships during the summer season up to four months.

* This year transit may be possible even for up to six months.

* From Rotterdam in Netherlands to Dalian in China, the time of passage will be about 35 days through the NSR as compared to 48 days through the Suez Canal. = considerable saving of time and fuel costs.
Russia and NSR

* Russia has now complete control over the NSR.

* A new agency called the Northern Sea Route Administration (NSRA) has been set up in Moscow.

* This new state agency will decide tariffs and regulations for passage of ships, consider applications from ship owners and give or refuse permissions.

* Its remit includes providing ice-breakers and pilotage, information regarding weather and ice conditions.

* The organisation will also do hydrographical surveys, arrange for search and rescue operations, and prevent pollution along the sea route including oil spills, etc. . .
geopolitical importance of the NSR will be immense. As

* minerals can now be transported from Europe to Asia Pacific and goods from China are now being exported to Europe.

* Super tankers have already made successful passage through the route.

* Russia is already using the route to bring development and prosperity to the North by linking the NSR with the rest of Russia through railway lines.

* The Russian rail and road network will link the northern sea route to Central Asia.

* Russia will emerge as a major beneficiary of the opening of the NSR.
challenges too.

* The route is still hazardous and expensive.

* There are uncertainties regarding ice formation and weather trends. What if the ice melt trend reverses itself?

* The investment in the mineral exploration and shipping is fraught with high risk.

* Russia will have to invest a lot in infrastructure to provide connectivity with the hinterland.

* Shortening of the distance and time from Europe to Asia through the Northern Sea Route will lead to the saving of fuel and on the emissions of carbon dioxide. But, there is a significant downside too. T

* the partially burnt fuel leaves black carbon soot deposits on the ice which is a climate change enforcer.

* Arctic Council is concerned about black carbon deposits and wants these to be monitored.

* Despite these uncertainties, the emerging trends indicate that the route has become technically viable. If the melting of the ice continues, NSR will become even a busier place.
What is Asian security diamond as proposed by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe?

* Actually, it is Democratic Security Diamond which Shinzo Abe had mooted just before he took over as prime minister in December 2012.

* He envisaged a strategy whereby Australia, India, Japan, the US state of Hawai form a diamond to safeguard maritime commons stretching from Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific.

* If you put a dot on a map against the countries and the region identified by Abe and connect them with each other, it will look like a diamond. That is why it is called as security diamond.

* During his previous stint as prime minister (2006-07), he had envisaged an Arc of Freedom and Prosperity, a multilateral framework consisting of Australia, India, Japan and the US.

* However, it could not materialise as Abe resigned owing to health reasons and plummeting public approval rating of his cabinet.

* It is a known fact that Japan, which does not have a full fledged military and has legal restrictions on use of force by its Self Defence Forces, has long been dependent on the US for its security.

* However, as the US went to Afghanistan and Iraq and remained preoccupied for years together, its focus shifted away from the Asia Pacific countries including Japan.

* Japan believes that with the rise of China, there has been a relative decline in the US power. Therefore, it wants to complement the US-Japan security alliance by signing partnership agreements with other democratic countries in Asia.

* The idea is to fill in the security void due to declining American influence in the region.

* such a security network is primarily aimed at securing the global commons.

* This proposal may have been mooted at a time when the US was pre-occupied with wars in other parts of the world, but now it is re-committing its troops to the Asia Pacific as part of its pivot to Asia policy in which Japan remains the key player.

* So, in the present scenario, it is unlikely that the idea of forging Democratic Security Diamond will take off.
What is the current status of India-Sri Lanka relations especially in view of the outcome of the elections in the Northern Province?

* The historic northern provincial council elections were held on September 21, 2013. In this election, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won 30 out of 38 seats.

* It is being speculated that despite its overwhelming victory, the TNA is going to face many challenges in the council to deliver on the commitments made to the people during its election campaign. A

* ttempts to weaken or even eliminate the provincial council through constitutional changes too cannot be ruled out.

* Though India had expressed its satisfaction on the conduct of the northern provincial council elections, it remains wary of the fact that the Sri Lankan Government is yet to implement various other commitments made to the international community, including the full implementation of the 13th Amendment.

* Though Indian prime ministers decision not to attend the 23rd Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Colombo could be disappointing for the Mahinda Rajapaksa Government, it is too early to assess its likely impact on the Indo-Sri Lanka relations.

* Meanwhile, it is also important to take note of the developments in the Indo-Lanka relations immediately after the provincial council elections.

* Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid had made a two-day official visit to Sri Lanka on October 7- 8, 2013., (MoU) for technical assistance in support of the 10-year National Plan for a Trilingual Sri Lanka, and eight agreements related to construction of Sampur coal power plant in Trincomalee District, were signed.

* Khurshid also visited Jaffna and distributed certificates to some of the beneficiaries of the Second Indian Housing Project, whereby houses are being constructed with the grant provided by the Indian Government amounting to INR 2,30,000 per house.

* He also distributed certificates to some of the beneficiaries of small business enterprises which were destroyed during the war.

* The issue of fishermen continue to pose a major challenge for the India-Sri Lanka relations.

* In 2011, two Indian fishermen were killed by the Sri Lanka Navy. Though no Indian fishermen have been killed since then, but several of them have been arrested and continue to be detained in Sri Lankan jails.

* In recent times, Sri Lanka has moved away from its earlier catch and release approach and has adopted the method of detaining and producing the fishermen in the court.

* Under the new method, the fishermen will be released only after they plead guilty and their boats will be confiscated.

* 23rd International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL) Meeting on November 1, 2013.

* the Navy officials of the two countries also discussed several other issues of bilateral concern like smuggling of narcotics across the IMBL and strengthening of the maritime security in the area.

* SLINEX 2013: in order to enhance the capability of maritime interdiction operations through Visit Board Search and Seize (VBSS) operations, Search and Rescue (SAR) demonstrations, asymmetric threat exercises and helicopter operations, the Joint Indo-Lanka Maritime Fleet Exercise was held in the seas off Goa during November 4-8, 2013.
Sunil Reddy
reference: idsa.in