For all topics, it is advisable to touch the following aspects :
* Geopolitical importance
* Strategic
* Security and Defence
* Energy
* Cultural
* Economic & Trade
* Educational
Conclusion could have: In the geo-political and strategic interest of the nation, we need to strengthen cooperation in three arenas:
* People to People (P2P)
* Government to Government (G2G)
* Business to Business (B2B)
INDIA PAKISTAN (Trade in 2012-13 ~ Rs. 10,000cr. )
* Common history and culture
* 2012: Pak Army asked Tata to supply trucks but Ratan refused
* Yearly custom: On Jan 1, both share the location of their nuclear installations under a 20 year old agreement (in force since Jan 1, 1991) that prevents attack on such places
* Pak wants NSG waiver like India (we got it in 2005). It also wants a 123 type agreement that India signed with USA in 2008
* June 2012: Def. Secr. Level talks on Siachen no result : Pak wants demilitarisation first and India wants demarcation first
* Sir Creek Issue: There is a boundary issue in this 96sq. km marshland in Runn of Kutch coz it is rich in natural gas. Pakistan claims the creek lies in its territory; with the international border falling on the east of the creek. Since 2011, it has extended its claim to Pir Sanai Creek. The landmass separating Pir Sanai from Sir Creek has disappeared, it says, and the mouths of the two water bodies have almost merged.
* Indian Claim :The creek should be divided between the two countries along the thalweg or the main navigable channel.
Since Indian naval assets use Pir Sanai, it is not thrilled about Pakistans latest claim either.
* Water Disputes: Issues because of the Tulbul Navigation Project (on R. Jhelum), Baglihar project (on R. Chenab)--- Water issue b/n the two were settled as per the Indus water Treaty of 1960 acc. To which: India can use Satluj, Ravi, Beas and Pak Indus, Chenab, Jhelum
* Jan 2013: Wagah Border (Amritsar) opened for supply of tradable goods. Here, as a good gesture the Pakis put Hindi hoardings along with the original Urdu ones. ---Punjab, Haryana will be the major beneficiaries here
* Another Issue: Pak is not willing to fast track the proceedings against 26/11 perpetrators, especially Hafiz Saeed. Recently, since Pak had completed an individual probe in this, therefore N. Sharif assured Manmohan Singh that itll be soon sorted out
* Off late, whenever there is a peace talk/ general meeting b/n these two countries the army gets engaged in LOC skirmishes to stall the peace progress. But, in Sept 2013 (on the side of UNGA) Manmohan Singh took a bold step by declaring to continue talks despite such incidents
* Gwadar port of Pak is now being operated by Chinese (was earlier under a Singaporean Co.) = major concern for India
* Pak involvement in 2001 attacks Afzal Guru hanged for this
* Dawood Ibrahim operates from Pak = irritant
* Indo-Pak trade (2012-13) = Rs. 9995.61cr. with a growth of 34.2% over previous years
* When Afzal guru and Kasab were hanged, Paks National Assembly condemned it we told them to shut up and mind their own business
* Nawaz Sharif was born in a village of Amritsar and was generally seen as pro India, but even his coming in as the PM hasnt change much for us
* In 2006, 2 bus services were launched to increase people to people contact (Type IV Diplomacy): Amritsar to Nankana Sahib (PUNJAAB) and Amritsar to Lahore (DOSTI)
* 2013: Relations worsened after Sarabjit (Indian) was supposedly killed in Pak jail and 3 days later Sanaullah (Pak national) died in Jammu
* Issue: India gave MFN status to Pak in 1995 and pak is still discussing it. Their experts seem to think that India is trying to buy Pak through the wallet so they are delaying it. But, in reality, high economic cooperation with India will help it also to grow and then like Ind-China, we could solve the border issues later and engage in trade now
INDIA CHINA
* Disputed territories =>
1. Aksai Chin: NW region of Ladakh
2. Depsang Plains :below Aksai Chin, occupied by China in 1962; China controls its eastern region and India controls the western region
3. Arunachal: India claims it on the basis of the McMohan line which is rejected by China. (Recently, 2 archers from the state were given stapled visatherefore, Inda did not let them go and compete in China)
* China is believed to be strategically trying to contain India through its String of Pearls Policy which includes gathering control over various ports (through a facade of economic interests) like:
1. Sitwe (Myanmar)
2. Chittagong (Bangladesh)
3. Hambantotta (SL)
4. Marau(Maldives)
5. Gwadar(Pakistan)
* May 2013: Le Keqiang visit discussed
6. Dams
7. How to set the trade deficit right
8. Staple Visa issue (of Arunachal)
9. Border Issue (because the visit was shortly after the Daulate Beg Oldie incident of April 13)
* China is trying to woo the traditional strongholds of India eg.
1. 800km natural gas pipeline from Myanmar to China- functional snice July 2013 ---Work on a similar oil pipeline has begun
2. Aynak Copper mining contract with Afghanistan in 2007
3. Supplies arms to SL at diplomatic prices
4. There were allegations of Chinese hand behind the Maldives GMR issue
* Oct 2013: Manmohan Singh vist to China Border Cooperation Agreement
* Indias ONGC VL is exploring oil in Vitnams PHU KAN basin of south China sea China opposes it
* Of late China has been making undue inroads inside Gilgit Baltistan. It is estimated that China willinvestmore than USD 30 billion in Gilgit-Baltistan in the coming years to build dams and connect Xinjiang with Gwadar via rail and road
* Trade itself has become a source of friction as Indias trade deficit with China has soared from $1 billion in 2002 to $40 billion in 2013
* India fears diversion of Brahmaputra waters if the following proposed dams are built:
INDIA SRI LANKA
* Background
1. Mahatma Gandhi called Sri Lanka Indias closest neighbour
2. More than 2500 years old relationship
* Intellectual, cultural, religious and linguistic intercourse
* India supported SL against the LTTE under Operation Pawan (1987-89)
* Indo SL Accord of 1987 between Rajiv Gandhi and Jayawardane resulted in the 13th Amendment which calls for more powers to the provincesthe amendment is based on the lines of Indian federal structure with three listsnot in force till date. After the Tamil national Alliance won the elections in the northern province of Jafna, the issue has again come up to put the 13th amendment into force.
* 2013: Sri Lanka has welcomed a whopping Rs 1,372 crore Indian housing assistance programme to build around 4000 homes in the country's eastern province. The housing assistance programme is one of the largest grant assistance projects implemented by India outside the country.
* Relations have been generally friendly, but were controversially affected by theSri Lankan civil war(1970's to 1980's) and by the failure ofIndian interventionduring the war.
* FTA in 2000
* China sells arms to SL at diplomatic prices
* India voted against SL in UNHRC strategists call it disastrous as it can push SL towards China
- 2013: Sri Lankan courts gave a clean chit to its military in HR vioaltions
* Territorial Issues
1. Killing of Indian fishermen in Sri Lankan waters
2. Kachchatheevu Island
* The island was given to Sri Lanka by India in 1974 (w/o any constitutional amendment as was made compulsory in 1960 Berubari case)
* Tamil Nadu government has been demanding the annulment of this ceding (since 2001) but SL is not ready to give it back
* India is Sri Lankas largest trade partner overall and it is also SLs largest foreign investor. Sl is our largest trade partner in Asia
* Aug 2013: UN High Commissioner for HR Navi Pillay went to SL on a 7 day fact finding mission and concluded that SL is heading in an authoritarian direction with the over involvement of military in civilian activities
* Hambantotta port being maintained by China = issue for India
* China helped SL in its first ever space mission- launched a communication satellite
* India now has 4 missions in Sri Lanka
* The consulates at Jaffna and Hambantota were opened in 2010.
* July 2011: India-Lanka begin work on the Kankasanthurai port
* This was a port near Jaffna that was earlier partly controlled by LTTE
INDIA - BANGLADESH
Background
* Longest boundary: 4096 km
* Common cultural ties and history of national movement
* 1971 liberation
* India provided haven to refugees
* Provided aid, training and shelter for the exiled govt of Bangladesh
* 1972: Treaty of friendship, cooperation and peace
* Aka Indira-Mujib treaty
* 1975: Assassination of Mujib
* Establishment of military regimes that sought to distance Bangladesh from India
* ULFA started operating its bases from the territory of Bangladesh
* Bangladesh alleged that India was supporting the Shanti Bahini insurgency in the Chittagong Hill tracts
* Some points
* Our geographical proximity makes us natural partners
* Common cultural identity can promote this partnership
Major Outstanding Issues
Table 1
IssueIndias ConcernBangladeshs Concern
SecurityBangladeshs haven to NE insurgent groups, especially ULFA: already taken care by the Sheikh Hasina government
Water sharing/Farakka Barrage, Teesta and FeniThere are 54 rivers in common and only one river water sharing agreement (Ganga River Water Sharing).Bangladesh says that it does not receive a fair share of the Ganges waters during the drier seasons, and gets flooded during the monsoons when India releases excess waters. Tipaimukhdam on R. Barak in Manipur decreases water (by diversifying water for crops) that should otherwise reach us.Less flow of water means high siltation in the deltaic nation
Enclaves (119th Amendment Bill = pending in Parliament)*51 Indian enclaves in Bangladesh (28 sq km)111 Bangladeshi enclaves in India (70 sq km)
ImmigrationThere is illegal immigration from Bangladesh to India, especially in Assam and Tripura
Maritime BoundaryThis is mineNo this is mine
South Talpatti islandIt emerged in the Bay of Bengal on theBangladeshside of river that makes the boundary betweenIndiaandBangladeshin the aftermath of theBhola cyclone in 1970, and disappeared before or duringCyclone Ailain 2009.Although the island was uninhabited and there were no permanent settlements or stations located on it, both India and Bangladesh claimedsovereigntyover it. The issue of sovereignty was also a part of the larger dispute over the methodology of settling the maritime boundary between the two nations.
Fencing of bordersIndia has fenced bordersCough syrups are smuggled to us from India
Table 2
BindersSeparators
1. Indias role in Bangladeshs liberation Indira Gandhi conferred the highest national award
2. Security concerns: India shares the longest international border with Bangladesh (4096km)
3. Share common concerns: poverty, development, corruption and terrorism
4. The issue of enclaves
5. Shared history and common heritage. Linked by culture: Rabindranath Tagore, Surya sen (Master Da), Bengali language, outflow-inflow of people
6. There is no demarcation of maritime boundary. Bangladesh went to the Tribunal of the Law of the Seas in this issue and got a ruling in its favour therefore it now has control over the St. Martins island which has possible gas reserves
7. In 1982, India had gifted the teen bigha region to Bangladesh so that it could link its two enclaves
8. Negative mindset towards India still prevails among certain Bangladeshi circles
9. Bilateral trade in 2012-13 was Rs. 27870.71cr with a growth rate of whopping 51.58% over 2011-12. India enjoys trade surplus.
11. Sheikh Hasina govt (Awami League) = pro India
12. Bangladesh National Party and Jamaat-e-Islami = anti India
13. India has started supplying electricity to Bangladesh to the tune of 200MW as of Oct will soon reach 500MW
15. Better US-Bangla relations= good for India
Recent:
* Feb 2013: Shinde signed a new extradition and visa regime treaty b/w Ind-Bangla.
* Shabagh Square protests occurred because Kader Molla (k/a Butcher of the Bengalis) = jamaat leader, was given life imprisonment and not death sentence as was expected due to involvement in 1971 war crimes. He was pro-Pak. After the protests, the judgement was reversed and he was given death. Many others also got harsh punishments for the war crimes
* 2013 : new border haats opened at Srinagar and Kamla Sagar (to improve Type IV diplomacy)
* May 2013: Pranab Mukherjee visited Dhaka
* Taslima Nasreen (novelist wrote Lajja) says about India: It feels, speaks, smells like home
* India's security establishment has been tracking radio broadcasts by Iran-Bangla Radio, a Bengali-language radio service which is part of an Iran-Bangladesh goodwill initiative, broadcasting radio programmes inside Bangladesh. The radio service has been consistently putting out anti-India polemic and messaging, which is now a matter of growing concern to the Indian government and security establishment,
INDIA BHUTAN (Trade in 2012-13 = Rs. 1092cr.)
* Friendship treaty in 1949, where India would assist Bhutan in foreign relations.
* The Indo-Bhutan Friendship Treaty of 2007 (revised) strengthens Bhutan's status as an independent and sovereign nation.
* Tata Poweris building a hydro-electric dam. This dam will greatly develop the Bhutanese economy by providing employment, and by selling electricity to India (70% of the produced amount) and fulfilling India's burgeoning energy needs. Due to this damBhutan's economy grew 20%, the second highest growth rate in the world.
* RAW keeps King Wangchuck updated on any Chinese movement on Bhutanese borders
* Bhutan = largest foreign aid receiver of India. As of 2012-13 fiscal, India's budgetary support to the Kingdom country stands at USD 600 Million, about one-third of India's overall annual foreign aid
* 2003-04: Royal Bhutanese Army conducted operations against ULFA
* Jan 26 2013: King of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, was the chief guest of the Republic Day Parade in Delhi. Before that Salman Khurshid's visited Bhutan (14-15 Jan. 2013).
* Thewithdrawal of subsidiesbefore Bhutans elections reflected how India did not like the recent pro China stand taken by the nation by visiting China in 2012. The move helped Tshering Tobgay of PDP replace the earlier PM Jigme Thinley. Indian ambassador to Bhutan Pavan K. Varma was forced to resign due to his failure to prevent Bhutan developing relations with China.
* Economic and Development cooperation:
* India is the largest trade and development partner of Bhutan
* 99.9% of Bhutans export is to India (electricity + timber)
* India has been extending financial assistance to Bhutans FYPs (first plan in 1961)
* Some major projects carried out with Indian assistance
* 1020 MW Tala HEP
* 336 MW Chukha HEP
* 60 MW Kurichhu HEP
* Penden Cement Plant
* Paro Airport
* Bhutan Broadcasting Station
* Major Highways
* Electricity Transmission and Distribution System
* Indo-Bhutan Microwave Link
* Exploration of Mineral Resources
* Survey and Mapping
* GoI also provides support to Bhutan to develop various mega projects
* Tala HEP
* India to purchase at least 10000 MW of power from Bhutan by 2020
* GoI has also committed to establish a 1 million tonne cement project, Dungsum Cement Plant at Nganglam
* First ever rail link between India Bhutan announced by PM MMS during the 2008 visit to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru's historic visit to Bhutan in 1958.
* The project - also called the Nehru Golden Jubliee Railway Link - was proposed as a 18 kilometres link connecting Hashimara in West Bengal to Toribari in Bhutan.
* still not functional
INDIA MYANMAR (Trade in 2012-13 ~3000 cr.)
* Myanmar = cultural ties it was separated from india in 1937
* Diplomatic relations were estd in 1948 after it gained independence under their leader Gen. Aung San.
* But relations were strained after the military junta took over since last year = improving relations
* It is imp. For our Look East Policy = land bridge to SE Asia
* 1643km border
* Access to NE : It is not so well known that Myanmarese ports provide India the shortest approach route to several of India's north-eastern states.
* Chinas share of FDI in Burma ~ 33% and Indias <1%
* Disputes:
1. Coco Island = internationally considered Burmas but we still lay claims on it.
2. Narcondum islands = part of A&N islands
* Myanmar = worlds 10th biggest gas reserves we should improve our relations to get more of it
* Talks are on for a 1575 km gas pipeline from Sitwe port in Myanmar to Gaya (Bihar)
* Acc. To the Border trade Agreement of 1994, we opened 2 border trade points at Moreh-Tamu and Zowkhatar-Rhi. In 2012, a 3rd one was opened at Somrai
* Insurgencies & Drug Trafficking in NE = major issue
* restoration of the historic 11th century Ananda temple in Bagan (Mandalay region where Tilak was sent in 1897) to be undertaken with the assistance of the Archaeological Survey of India, with the involvement of the Ministry of Culture of Myanmar.
* Bilateral Highway India-Myanmar= Built
* Trilateral highway India-Myanmar-Thailand = under construction
* Nov 2012 = Obamas visit (1st ever by a US Pres); May 2013 = 2nd Obama visit => signs of improving relations with USA= good for India (because itll pull them away from China)
* Aung San Suu Kyi studied in LSR, Delhi. She had won the 1989 elections but was put under house arrest. In April 2012 by elections won 43/44 seats and is now the leader of opposition now.
* Myanmars Parliament still has 25% seats reserved for the army
* India and Myanmar = both part of BIMSTEC and Mekong Ganga Cooperation
* Way Forward:
* While India is concerned with the slow pace of progress on the issue of national reconciliation and the consequent delay in installing a democratically elected government in power in Yangon, the strategic scenario compels India to balance its security concerns with its support for the emergence of democratic rule.
* It is only through close engagement that India can promote leverages with the ruling regime to nudge it gently towards national reconciliation.
* India must also increase its economic footprint in Myanmar, particularly in areas that are contiguous to India.
* The fear psychosis of Myanmar's military junta is being exploited by China and this cannot be in the interest of either India or any of the other democracies of the free world.
* It is important to end Myanmar's isolation and to allay its fears that the whole world is ganging up against it.
* India's national interest lies in a strong and stable Myanmar that observes strict neutrality between India and China
* Kaladan: India and Myanmar have quietly finalised the $100-million Kaladan multi-modal link project in 2008, which will provide much-needed transit access between the north-eastern states and the rest of the country. Estimated at a cost of IC (Indian Currency) 545 crore the project proposes 826 km route by sea, river and road from Kolkata to Mizoram. The highest distance of 539 km will be covered from Kolkata port in India to Sittwe port in Myanmar encircling the coastal line of Bangladesh in the Bay of Bengal. The proposed sea route is then connected with the riverine channel through river Kaladan up to 158 km in the upstream before being linked to a land route that stretches about 129 km through the mountainous terrain in the Chin State of Myanmar before finally reaching Mizoram in India.
Harshit Narang
Sources:
* http://mrunal.org
* The Hindu
* www.livemint.com
* http://thediplomat.com
* Wikipedia
* Mea.gov.in
