Monday, January 13, 2014

DOES INDIA NEED TO BECOME NEXT SUPER POWER? WHEN-WHY

DOES India NEED TO BECOME NEXT SUPER POWER? WHEN-WHY -HOW
Does India have arrived to stage to become a super power? If so, what notion of super power India has to pursue. What aspects of economic, diplomatic, technological, socio- cultural spheres does India need to prioritize?
Above cited sentence is apparently rhetoric, but at the same time those are the questions with embedded answers. We usually associate superpower word with former colonies like 19 century Britain and 20th century USA and Russia (or former USSR) because of their political and economic hegemony over world that ran almost unchallenged. Post Soviet Union disintegration, America is the single world power since then. We often ignore the fact that they evolved to present form from crises that span from economic, cultural, ethnic, and political to the current levels. USA continue to face problems like internal security vis-a vis gun shootings at colleges and schools, sovereign debt, diplomatic slide (regarding Syria, Palestine gaining hold in UN, Iran, BRIC countries planning to trade in their currencies, and in political sphere its shut down over accepting budget in house of representatives). As isolated events they do not leave a mark in USAs super power status. But it is noteworthy that a super power is not a nation with big influence only but also a nation with impeccable internal strength and support. Also, there are other countries that have commendable position in other fields like Europe in services, Scandinavian countries in technology( refining, financial ), east Asian nations in manufacturing like cars, electronics and OPEC nations and African countries in mineral resources. A small nation, Bhutan, took a brave step of pursuing happiness as its goal than just economic development. Norway, on the other hand, is emerging as a peace negotiator. Small European nations like Ireland and Sweden are pursuing transparency and freedom of digital world. In other words, nations are emerging in different aspects and judged differently from others standpoint. Bhutan, Norway may be in eyes of their thinkers can be gauged as happy nations than simple powerful nation.
Indias position::
Socio economic and political approach:
Indias idea of super power is gaining in last decade when it came out of 1991 crisis. Economic reforms (L P G) coupled with emergence of software, IT, ITES, demographic dividend, 40 years of peace helped in proclaiming India as an emerging economy. But great things are not simple ones. Economic divide is also widened ever since. Achieving inclusive growth is tougher than achieving high growth in terms of GDP. Even in political spheres also, India has just started devolution of its powers to local bodies. These nascent institutions lack economic independence and political autonomy. People as a whole are sporadically witnessing rampant corruption, ethnic clashes like Kashmiri pundits expulsion and post Godhra riots, anti Sikh riots, Assam clashes. National integrity is occasionally challenged also. Economic divide abetted naxalism and other social evils as class- caste continuum is still prevalent in India. India has not yet evolved into providing universal rights from current reservation systems. However, RTI, MGNREGA, RTE are starters and much more are needed like food security, health care security, etc.
Defense Diplomacy related:
No nation can choose its neighbors. India is no different and is rather complex. (The epic duo of USA and USSR are not neighbors). India and Pakistan are twins divided on a fateful nights and fighting ever since like blood enemies in three wars and many more proxy wars till date. India can only become as world power after developing mutual cooperation and perpetual peace with its neighbors.
China has natural and geological advantage of being at high Tibetan plateau. Defense and attack are equally unviable to India in perpetuity. So settling border disputes and revamping Indias intelligence and nuclear deterrence are viable options.
Defense and diplomacy are like Siamese twins as far as India is concerned. Mutual cooperation and peaceful coexistence is only way forward because trade with these neighbors is not reached its full potential. To convert our demographic dividend to practical reality, export- emigration-trade with other Asian neighbors is inimitable. We need to learn this from USA- Japan, USA- china model. Although they share uncomfortable memories, they are emerging with disproportionately high trade and commerce.
In 21st century, shear force and advanced defense technologies wont serve the purpose. A soft diplomacy of dialogue coupled with excellent intelligence is a much needed complement.
Technology related:
India ruled call center and IT & ITES sectors in the last decade due to its intrinsic advantages like having good proportion of English speaking skilled man power at cheap. But, China is catching very fast and Philippines and china had even taken over call center market from us. Over dependence on export based economy is not a good choice economically. Indias structural economic imbalance is a great dividing factor (our primary sector contributes to livelihood majority of the population and incompatible secondary sector activities like food processing and manufacturing coupled with revenue contributing service sector). Services like insurance (life, non life, crop insurance), banking are not penetrated into core of Indian rural economy. Once they penetrate, making them delivering the needs would be a fresh item. Financial sector reforms like Pension, stock markets are much needed and slowly moving currently.
Technologies for sustainable agriculture, climate change, defense, GPS, manufacturing, energy are mostly imported (because of this, when IRAN crude oil sanctions are imposed by USA, India is compelled to obey it or face the crisis of being denied re- insurance, technology license for its oil refineries). So, lacking indigenous technologies and the power of independent decision making, greatly determine a countrys prospects of becoming super power.
Internal problems/security:
Balkanization of Indian society on the basis of region, religion, caste, creed, class, language is a threat to nations integrity. Rise of regional and sub regional parties (mostly for seeking autonomy or separate statehood like TRS, JMM etc.) and political compulsions of coalition governments are making problems even murkier. Economy disparity lead to social conflict and evolution of extremist ideologies like naxalism and to counter it more money is being spent. Had we been spending our time and money on the root cause, we could have averted the very problem (Nutrition hygiene share similar analogy Vis a Vis healthcare in India). So without mitigating the internal problems we cant engage in global arena.

Rights:
During our nascent days of independence, we took caste as a indicator to social inequality because it was right one to that day and designed corrective actions in providing reservations to backward classes. We took bit of complacency and thought that providing a reservation is a magical stick. Unfortunately, other follow up measures like universal approach and right based approach like current RTE, MGNRGA are delayed for decades. As a result reservations are misunderstood by other high and middle class non backward communities, which equally need those benefits from the government, and that created social unease. Political parties and associations are started to form solely to get reservations and other benefits. This wider social pluralism is unique to India (even USA do not have wide pluralism in terms of religion, language although it has ethnic diversity). Moreover, India took a brave and harder challenge of secularism despite its plurality. So India has to continue universal rights based approach in achieving socio economic political equity
After touching socio economic political diplomatic aspects of India, we need review the concept of super power afresh. Is it controlling (or influencing) the globe as Britain, USSR, USA done or doing? Is it the power of a nation to provide equity and justice, happiness, peace, socio economic inclusion to its citizens perpetually? The second one is harder and the first one is relatively easy. Its worth mentioning here that, Indian ethos from Vedic times has been Peaceful co existence. If India follow this harder path to achieve super power status, one day the world may forget the concept of super power which sounds like hegemony.
NARESH