* Implications for China, India and the Global Energy Market
* As the world struggles to emerge from a global recession and financial crisis, nations are looking for solutions to improve their economic performance.
* energy sector constitutes a relatively modest share of GDP in most countries,
* energy and the economy have a symbiotic relationship 1 since energy is an input for nearly all goods and services
* countries with less access to energy display a slower rate of economic growth.
* More importantly, energy creates jobs and value by extracting, transforming and distributing energy goods and services.
* Moscow has tried to retain its stranglehold over the region as well as the energy reserves of the land-locked Central Asian states , even cutting off gas supplies to states, which showed any inclination of moving closer to the West.
* The US policy towards the region, and indeed other regions as well, on the other hand, is to push for an open door policy
* which would not only allow American energy fir ms to enter the energy sector ,but would also encourage the resource-rich governments to adopt more independent, and preferably pro-Western foreign policies
* following the 1970s, when the US despite being a major producer nevertheless became a net importer of oil due to its increasing consumption, was not dependent on West Asia oil supplies
* Europe and Japan were almost entirely dependent on the region s oil supplies .
* Hence, the US policy of exerting influence on the region and its oil production was to a large extent to ensure that its allies oil supply lines were secure, interms of both, adequate production as well as transportation.
* disruption to oil supplies led to sharp price spikes
* confrontation shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, which is seen as critical for the revival of the US economy that has been affected by the financial crisis .
* With the advent of the commercial viability of the hydraulic fracturing or fracking technology in the US which allowed its vast shale gas and oil reserves to be exploited
* From 2008, the US began to cut its oil imports, partly due to growing fuel efficiency and a concurrent drop in consumption due to the recession, and partly because of growing domestic oil and gas production.
* It provided Washington with the leverage to announce its impending energy independence,
* However, the announcement of the new rebalance towards Asia caused consternation as well as excitement around the world.
* US will try to maximise its strategic interests by utilising its constructive cooperation with China as well as Russia and with India to some extent and at the same time, contain and prevent these countries from challenging its hegemonic status .
* Beijing s view of Washington s Pivot to Asia policy is seen as an attempt to contain China and prevent it from growing stronger, and constitute a challenge to the US vested interests .
* More importantly, it also raised the larger question about what it would mean for the energy, and particularly the oil, market.
* oil market had tilted towards the emerging economies from its traditional W estern markets, the onus on ensuring safe passage of oil supplies to the rest of the world was with the US .
* although the change in the energy sector has been set off by the shale gas revolution due to the use of fracking, it does have an impact on the global oil market as well,
* given that fracking also allows the recovery of large, untapped reserves of oil.
* However, over the last two decades, natural gas is gradually gaining in importance vis--vis oil.
* gas is fast becoming the fuel of choice for more and more consumers.
* This is mainly due to of its relatively low environmental impact as well as the fact that liquefaction and re-gasification technology has brought down costs substantially, making LNG more global in nature.
* Moreover, while previously,gas was used more in the power and industrial sector, it is now being increasingly used in the transport sector as well.
* Today, world gas consumption is projected to more than double over the next three decades, surpassing coal as the world s number two energy source and potentially overtaking oil s share in many large industrialised economies . 6
* the changing role of the US from an energy importer to an energy exporter is expected to have far-reaching consequences on not only their energy sectors,but also politics as a consequence of the c hanging global energy geopolitics.
* According to the International Energy Agency s (IEA) Medium Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR),North America s hydrocarbon revolution will dominate the supply outlook
* China and India are emerging as the two largest and growing energy markets
* Till recently, when China overtook the US as the largest consumer of energy and the largest importer of oil
* Given that the West Asian region held the largest reservoir of oil, and the huge investments American companies had made in the region s oil sector
* the US foreign policy understandably was focused on the need to ensure that its investments were safe and that the supply lines for the world s oil market were open and secure.
* The impact of the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the oil price shock that followed thereafter had a profound and lasting impact on all oil importing countries .
* irrespective of where the disruption, if any of supplies occurred, the stability of the entire oil market was affected as it led to a spike in prices .
* Hence, although primary sources of the US oil imports was not the West Asian oil producers, the instability of the region had an impact on the US economy as it meant higher oil import bills
* ten-year plan to build 200 nuclear power plants, 150 coal-based power plants,30 big oil refineries and 20 synthetic fuel plants .
* Moreover ,the Trans-Alaskan oil pipeline was approved, along with stringent fuel efficiency standards for the automobile industry.
CHINA'S ENERGY DILEMMA
* China s policymakers believe that their country s political future and regime stability is premised on the sustenance of the country s economic performance and steady rise in their standard of living
* ensuring GDP growth of around 8 per cent annually and containing inflation was a top priority of the government.
* the most important drivers of the Chinese government s policy, and should be seen more as a means to achieve its economic goals, and not seen as a means for garnering geopolitical influence .
* China s approach to energy security is quite different from that of the US .
* China has realised that domestic hydrocarbon resources will not be sufficient to fuel its economic growth and that it would have to rely on energy impor ts .
* it would need to ensure that its energy imports are transported safely to its shores .
* And finally, the impact of the growing use of fossil fuels on its environment is also an area of concern.
* Hence, the third component of its energy security policy is demand management and reducing the use of fossil fuels in its energy basket.
INDIA'S ENERGY SELF SUFFICIENCY- A DREAM OR DISTANT REALITY?
* Like China, India s energy policy is linked to its development agenda.
* Although India has achieved impressive levels of economic growth in recent decades
* which has placed its economy in the fourth place globally when measured by purchasing-power-parity and a GDP of approximately $4 trillion (2010)
* its per capita income remains low, and around 30 per cent of its population is living below the poverty line.
* T o attain its goal of development, India needs a sustained Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 8-10 per cent per annum
* as against its current average growth rate of 6-7 per cent over the last two decades.
* some of it due to the policy of providing free power to certain sectors has impacts on not only the financial capacity of energy producers and distributors
* but also discourages in vestment
* particularly the energy sector, finds itself trapped between a market-oriented sector and an under-performing, monopolistic one
* which is starved of both investment and technology.
* Moreover, the inability to complete the process has led to innumerable internal security problems, from left wing extremism to high and growing crime and corruption, all of which have an impact on its investment climate as well as development.
* The sustainability of India s economic growth is premised on its access to energy resources, among others, and this is where India can face several hiccups
* India s energy demand is expected to increase by five to six times over the next few decades.
* Despite having large natural resources, lack of reforms, poor infrastructure and inadequate hydrocarbon reserves have seen India increasingly insecure in the energy sector .
* Yet, in 2006,former Indian President A.P .J . Abdul Kalam stated that India should achieve energy security by 2020
* India is, and will remain, dependent on the international energy market for the near future as long as it continues to be dependent on hydrocarbons.
* However, while energy independence may be a chimera, at least for the foreseeable future, can India be energy secure over the next few decades?
* Indias energy challenges
* The foremost challenges for the Indian government in ensuring its energy security are gaining access to energy resources as well as ensuring that all its citizens have access to modern forms of energy.
* nearly a quarter of the population lacks access to electricity
* Second, stagnating production of hydrocarbons has resulted in increasing dependence on imported fuels .
* A part from having an impact on its exchequer ,increasing import dependence also exposes the country to greater geopolitical risks and international price volatility .
* the dependence on hydrocarbons has taken a toll on the environment, with a rise in pollution levels.
* Many of India s major cities are some of the most polluted in the world, and apart from affecting the health of the people, India has come under considerable pressure to contribute to climate change mitigation.
* The dilemma that successive governments have to face therefore is how to balance economic growth and development, for which a large amount of energy is required
* with the least cost to the environment.
* If this challenge is not dealt with skillfully, it can interrupt India s growth agenda.
* The problem becomes compounded as India is ,and will continue to be, largely dependent on fossil fuels.
* Today, India is the fifth largest energy consumer and the fourth largest importer of crude oil
* with its dependence on imports growing year-on-year as its domestic production of oil, gas and coal are unable to keep up with demand.
* As a result, India has to rely increasingly on energy imports ,which in turn exposes the country to greater geopolitical risks and economic challenges due to the international price volatility . What led to this pass?
* Following the launch of the liberalisation policy in the early 1990s,
* India s economy began to surge, registering growth levels of 6 per cent per annum. However ,this led to a huge demand for energy.
* While at the time, India did not require to import coal and gas, it did see a huge increase in its oil imports, partly because of growing demand as well as low domestic production due to a combination of domination of E&P activities by inexperienced state-owned fir ms and lack of investment.
* As a result, India s oil imports ,which comprised around 30 per cent of overall demand in the 1980s, now began to increase year-on-year.
* Today, India imports nearly 80 per cent of its oil requirement.
* In the case of natural gas and coal, until 2004 India did not import any gas, while coal imports were minimal as India had substantial coal reserves, albeit of poor quality .
* However, following the advent of liberalisation, India s demand grew exponentially, thereby necessitating increasing imports of both gas as well as coal. Today, India is one of the largest importers of energy resources, which has enormous consequences for its energy security .
By B BABLOO,
REFERENCES: NEWSPAPER-HINDU, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL WEEKLY, IDSA, MRUNAL SITE, ORF SITE.
