Foreign policy of a country defines the future of a country to a greater extend as it decides two crucial issues namely 1.National security 2.Economic Integration
Background
How did Afghanistan come to this condition?
Phase 1: British Empire(India) vs. Emirate of Afghanistan
* Afghanistan has been called the graveyard of Empires as no single power was able to rein it completely in the past because its resistive tribes this holds true even now
* Afghanistan with free foreign policy as a nation was born as a result of Third Anglo-Afghan War(1919)
* Third Anglo-Afghan War(1919)= British Empire(India) vs. Emirate of Afghanistan
* Why war?
* Britain was worried about Russian influence on Afghanistan which would lead to invasion on India
* Britain had been trying to influence Afghan in its favour through large subsidy to its ruler but bore less fruit as Afghan played the side which paid more which had earlier resulted into Second Afghan war(18781880) effectively enabled control over Afghanistan till the death of Habibullah
* Amanullah, Habibullah third son took over amid power struggle in the kingdom sensing he cannot retain power if he didnt placate the conservatives , decided to go on war as the situation in British India was sensitive post Jallianwala Bagh Massacre(1919).Amanullah invaded British India
* Result?
* British had a tactical victory pushing back Afghanistan army
* But loss from the Indian side was high, both sides had their gains
* Amanuallah managed to stave off the domestic crisis and gained free foreign policy emerged as a independent state by the Treaty of Rawalpindi(1919)
* Britain political gain remained in Afghanistans acceptance of Durrand line
* Durrand line is a contentious issue between Afghanistan and Pakistan now
Phase 2:Cold war Era: The Soviet intervention
* Post Afghanistan independence the notable ruler of Afghanistan was King Mohammad Zahir Shah, remembered for his modern outlook established National legislature & improving the status of Woman
* He built greater ties with the Soviet Union arms purchases, infra projects @ the height of Cold war, this became eye sore for USA which established tie with Zahir through USAID
* Instability crept in when communist factions and Islamic factions of Afghan fighting each other Zahir was overthrown by his cousin Mohammad daoud
* India was the only country to recognize the soviet backed Democratic Republic of Afghanistan in 1980s.
* This pushed back Afghanistan to pre- modern state as Islamic forces were against any change from traditional society
* Soviet Union deployed troops to prevent further control of militias known as Mujahedin
* The USA assisted the Mujahedin in the war against Soviet union
* The anti war sentiments in Soviet union & new leader in power Mikail Gorbachev decided to pull out which was decided based on the Geneva Accords(1988)
* The Geneva accords led to withdraw on both sides;USA it considered a decisive victory over Soviet Union
* Massive reduction in aids followed with the fall of Soviet Union thus leaving a weak government under Najibullah Ahamedzei
Phase 3: Rise of Taliban:
* The weak government of Najibullah fell and the Mujahedins took over the rule of Afghanistan
* Mujahedins were primarily group of 7 Islamic organizations popularly known as Peshawar 7
* The fall of govt lead to in fighting under agreement between the P7 Rabbani became the President he was the UN accepted President even during the later Taliban regime & India too acknowledged him as the President
* A group of Mujahedins disappointed with the infighting between Ruling Mujahedins formed the Taliban movement, they moved to Pakistani madrassas based on the learning there they established the Taliban rule later in Afghanistan
* The infighting among the mujahidins & the civil war made them unpopular which lead to rise in popularity of Taliban in Afghanistan
* Taliban captured Afghanistan at their peak almost had control over 90% of Afghanistan
* Only 3 countries recognized them namely Pakistan, UAE, Saudi Arabia
* Taliban regime was lead by Mullah Mohammad Umar
* Taliban regime(September 1996-November 2001) became vastly unpopular around the world for its treatment of woman, banning TV,music,dance
* Al Qaeda leader Osama bin laden shifted to Afghanistan from Sudan
* The USA throughout pressured Afghanistan to extradite Osama Bin Laden for his attacks on American Embassies throughout the world, Afghanistan refused ties worsened to low point with the September 11 Attacks
* The Bush regime decided to over throw Talibans militarily
* The USA along with NATO forces launched Operation Enduring Freedom along with the Northern Alliance
* The war ended with top leaders escaping to Pakistan including Mohammad Umar & Osama Bin laden (killed by USA:Operation code named Operation Neptune Spear)
Northern Alliance:
* The Northern Alliance is primarily a group of Multi ethnic opposition group consisting of non Pastuns namely Tajiks,Uzbeks & Hazaras .
* The Talibans are primarily Pastuns.Pastuns are the largest population in Afghanistan accounting to 42%
* The Northern Alliance once a group with infighting joined forces with America to defeat Talibans
Phase 4: Post war Afghanistan Karzai Regime
* Post war Bush regime argued that the past mistake of USA post Soviet defeat where USA left Afghanistan lead to the rise of terrorist organizations in Afghanistan hence the nations must come forward to Nation Building of Afghanistan which was accepted by UN
* The Bonn Agreement was signed-to recreate the State of Afghanistan post American Invasion of Afghanistan
* Bonn agreement called for creation of new constitution formation of Interim Government which was headed by Hamid Karzai
* This was followed by elections which Karzai won and is in his second term
* The United Nations involves itself in nation building through United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan(UNAMA)
* UNAMA-involved in Afghan Governance & Nation Building Process
* America has been training the local forces to defend themselves post exit but the current strength of the Afghanistan National security forces is not expected to hold itself against enemy onslaught post exit of western forces
Major Conferences held:
* International Conference on Afghanistan, Bonn Conference I (2001)
* Led to the appointment of Hamid Karzai as leader of Afghan Interim Authority & signing of Bonn agreement. Tagline: The Decade of Transition
* International Conference on Afghanistan, Bonn Conference II (2011)
* Held a decade after Bonn I
* Shift from Decade of Transition(2001-2011) to Decade of Transformation(2014-2024)
* NATO Objective: Leave Afghanistan transferring power to Afghan National Security Forces by 2014
* Karzai Regime Objective: Convince Western forces continue partnership of nation building of Afghanistan through Foreign Aids till Country ready to stand on its own.
* Pakistan boycotted the conference thus reducing the scope of conference to some extend
* Conference mentioned need for reconciliation with insurgents groups to further peace process
* Istanbul Process(2011 Istanbul,2012 Kabul) a.k.a Heart of Asia Conference
* Focused encouraging co operation between Afghanistan & its neighbours
* Key areas of Confidence Building measures(CBM)
* Education, student Exchange Programmes(lead member Iran)
* Disaster Management (lead member Pakistan & Kazakhstan)
* Drug trafficking (lead member Russia & Azerbaijan)
* Terrorism & counter Terrorism measures (lead members UAE,Turkey &Afghanistan)
* Chambers of Commerce & Commercial Opportunities (lead member India)
* NATO Chicago Conference( 2012 )
* Held in Chicago, meeting between heads of NATO
* Discussed various issues one of them being Afghanistan policy
* Endorse exit strategy of Afghan war
* Long term support & commitment to Afghanistan
* Power transition to Afghanistan forces
* Pledge fund for Afghan forces development
* Delhi Investment Summit on Afghanistan(2012)
* GOI partnering with CII & Afghanistan organized investment summit on Afghanistan
to attract foreign investment on Afghanistan
* Earlier in Istanbul process the confidence building measure India was chosen the lead member of Commerce and India followed it up with this summit proving Afghanistans importance to India
* Key areas of investment being Mining, hydrocarbon, Infrastructure, Healthcare & Telecom
* Tokya Conference (2012)
* Tokya conference relates to series of conditions set by International Community
* Key conditions being hold fair elections in 2014
* Improve access to justice, accept International standards on human rights
* Fight Corruption,Terror Financing,money laundering
* Counter menance of illicit narcotics drugs through crop eradication and move towards alternative forms of Agriculture
* 92% of non Pharmaceutical Opium originate from Afghanistan worth $4 billion
* The donors agreed to donate $16 Billion on acceptance of the above conditions
Phase 5: Situation @ hand and Strategic Importance of Afghanistan
* Western approach in solving the Afghan Taliban crisis since Afghan war has been a failure
* West is searching for a way to leave Afghanistan when the situation is worser than 2001 as the war has become unwinnable with the Haqqani & Pakistani nexus hurting the western forces badly
* Plausible solution @ US hand
* Withdraw by 2014
* Maintain a military presence post 2014 in some form
* Reconciliation with the insurgency groups operating from Pakistan
* Train & Rebuild Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF)
* Security transition to ANSF by 2014
* Reconciliation road block as Non Pastuns Minority ethnic groups oppose peace with Taliban as they fear oppression which in case may lead to a future civil war in Afghanistan
* In case of a civil war the situation might tilt towards Pakistan & Haqqani network which could be detrimental for Indias security interests
Indias Position
* India has been neutral so far in handling Afghanistan even during the Taliban regime India worked with UN recognized government of Burhanuddin Rabbani.
* After the overthrow of Taliban regime India continues to work with Karzai
* Factors that affect Indias strategy are
* Taliban factor
* Lack of unity between Karzai & Western forces
* Reduction of Western troops
* Impact of Pakistans influence post western forces exit
* India expects establishment of a modern Islamic state free from Talibani & Pakistani influences as the above forces would deny India the space to work in Afghanistan
* India has so far committed US $2 Billion for reconstruction is Afghanistan and cannot turn blind eye towards such a strategically important country as it might affect the power balance in Asia
Indias work in Afghanistan so far:
* India & Afghanistan have so far signed Strategic Partnership Agreement during Karzais visit to India
* India is the fifth Bilateral largest donor to Afghanistan
* Indias assistance to Afghanistan can be categorized as 3 types
* Humanitarian Assistance(e.g. food aid )
* Infrastructure Projects
* Capacity Building measures
* Major Infra projects by India
* Construction of 218 km road from Zaranj to Delaram to facilitate movement of goods and services from Afghanistan to the Iranian border and, onward, to the Chahbahar Port (Strategic Importance for India earlier explained by Mrunal)
* Construction of the Afghan Parliament
* Construction and commissioning of Salma Dam power project (42 MW) in Herat province
* Restoration of telecommunication infrastructure in 11 provinces
Source: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWhQRPbYQ2NfvxMhMmZT-XG__gdaDVPf9HzLmdXLXbF-Khq8Fpmrb7kqHRHTW0NM_tkQ2KjmZohl4QiVZPp0RGzNOoMZYbOwIRGyfSy2ulJsz1BdooBE46X7iZc0GqrA-tM-8rSRbalOY/s400/IndiaAfghanistan.jpg
* Education and capacity development
* Reconstruction of Habibia School, Kabul.
* 500 annual long-term university scholarships sponsored by the Indian Council for Cultural Relations for under-graduate and postgraduate studies for Afghan students in India.
* Indian Interests in Afghanistan:
* Indias Interest in Afghanistan is not just in maintaining the balance towards Pakistan it also goes in the direction of economic purposes of trade on the long run
* A stable Afghanistan would improve intercontinental trade for India through road
* By 2015, Indias trade with Europe, CIS(Commonwealth of Independent states) countries ,Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan would be about $500 billion annually.
* If 20 per cent of this trade were to be conducted through road, $100 billion of Indian trade would be passing through Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Central Asian region.
* This will greatly help North Indian states in the region of trade
* A stable Afghanistan would enable India to implement Connect Central Asia Policy of India(explained earlier by Mrunal)
* TAPI pipeline could be implemented as this could fulfill Indias energy needs(TAPI pipeline explained in Mrunal.org )
* India plans to push International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) which a stable Afghanistan can play a role through DelaramZaranj Highway(Afghanistan) via the Chabahar Port(Iran) bypassing Pakistan in the process.
* Both DelaramZaranj Highway(Afghanistan) and reach the Chabahar Port(Iran)
are funded by India
International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC):
* INSTC is a Multimodal network from India passing through Iran and thus reaching Central Asia and Europe
* The route starts with Mumbai(India) Bandar Abbas Port(Iran) Moscow(Russia) Northern Europe
* INSTC initiated by India,Russia,Iran now joined by 11 more countries Azerbaija,Armenia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkey,Ukraine,Belarus,Oman,
Syria,Bulgaria
Source:The Hindu
Other Countries:
Pakistan:
* Pakistan plays a crucial role Afghanistans future
* Pakistans objectives are diametrically opposite to that of India
* Pakistan doesnt want Afghanistan to align with India and wants it to provide Strategic depth against India
* Pakistan has been giving safe haven for insurgent groups to gain leverage in Afghanistan.
* Pakistan also wants to train the ANSF
* The Afghanistan Pakistan relations have improved since Sharif took charge & high level envoy ,foreign policy advisor Sartaj Aziz was send to Afghanistan.
* Karzai accepted Pakistan invitation to Pakistan also attended Sharifs sworning as PM
* Afghanistan has border issues with regard to UN recognized Durrand line which Afghanistan doesnt accept
* Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) was signed between the two nations provides easier transportation via Pakistan of Afghan products
* APTTA allows dropping of Afghanistan goods to India but doesnt taking back Indian goods back to Afghanistan
Iran:
* Iran seeks to prevent USA gain too much leverage in Afghanistan as it might help USA to attack Iran on the long run
* Iran also wants to protect the Shia population in Afghanistan
* Iran is also seen to arm Taliban against USA
Central Asian States:
* Central Asian States are seen to provide key assistance to USA to fly in troops to the region
* The USA proposed New Silk Road(NSR) seeks to bring Afghanistan crossroads between Central & South Asia were Central Asia states play a pivotal role.
China:
* China has played a limited role in Afghanistan,keeping an eye on Islamic uprisings which could affect Uighur community in China
* Chinas interest has been primarily on investment in minerals and other investment oriented activities also provide some leverage for its ally Pakistan
The Future Ahead
Status of Force Agreement/Strategic Partnership:
* The USA signed strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan yet it is different from the Status of Force Agreement (SoFA)
* Status of Force Agreement (SoFA) was earlier signed between USA & Iraq to retain its forces there.
* The current partnership agreement stops short of such conditions as it claims after the signing of the strategic partnership agreement the two countries would initiate negotiation on a Bilateral Security Agreement
* This shows lack of consensus between the two countries which could hamper peace after 2014 ,depends on the troops that stay post 2014 to understand the followup in Afghanistan
* The future of stability in Indian sub continent depends to some extend on the level troops that is retained in Afghanistan that NATO troops in Afghanistan are retained
Taliban Office:
* On June 18, 2013, with U.S. and Qatari concurrence, the Taliban formally opened its political office in Qatar, simultaneously issuing a statement refusing future ties to international terrorist groups
* Expressing willingness to eventually transition to Afghan government-Taliban talks.
* However, the Taliban violated reported understandings with the United States and Qatar by raising above the building the flag of the former Taliban regime and calling the facility the office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
Conclusion
The Future of Geopolitical situation is Indian subcontinent largely rests on the stability in Afghanistan after exit of NATO forces & how the world handles the Talibani group and Northern Alliance.
By R.Aditya
Sources:
http://www.mea.gov.in/Uploads/PublicationDocs/176_india-and-afghanistan-a-development-partnership.pdf
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/IranfactorinIndiasAfghanPolicy_sspattanaik_240812
http://www.idsa.in/strategicanalysis/36_4/IndiasAfghanPolicy_SmrutiPattanaik
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jun/26/nato-taliban-india-pakistan
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Asia/0813pp_indiaafghanistan.pdf
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL30588.pdf
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1652187.stm
http://www.ipcs.org/article/pakistan/bonn-ii-from-transition-to-transformation-in-afghanistan-3528.html
http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/04/26/istanbul-process-ministerial-results-and-prospects-for-future/g05j
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/22/world/nato-formally-agrees-to-transition-on-afghan-security.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/TheDelhiInvestmentSummitonAfghanistan_gsachdeva_260612
http://www.unodc.org/afghanistan/en/Events/tokyo-conference-on-afghanistan.html
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/global-corridor-will-cut-cargo-transit-time/article3474227.ece
Book:India s Neighbourhood Challenges in Next two decades by INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES(IDSA)
